> Intertwined
And that is the _point_, this same pattern existed in all those previous instances too. OpenAI/Stargate and so on are just "fronts" for a team effort investment into building wildly unprofitable infrastructure costing upwards of 1T. e.g Saudi does not give a hoot about LLM technology itself, its just that there is infra being built, and once it is done, it will lock in energy demand in a massive way, and so it makes sense to help build this infra. Similarly for nvidia/gpus, which is why they invest in openai and such.
All the money people are dumping into this now, will be made back on the millions of small million dollar companies that will build products on top of this infrastructure, once it is built (which causes the money to move out of this and onto those smaller product companies - this is the market crashing/bubble bursting). I don't need to point you at the various SaaS/whatever companies making a killing on top of the extremely unprofitable cloud investments of the past, or the absolutely insane economic reach telecom has enabled today.
During this push to build the infrastructure, there will be a lot of short-term investors trying to make easy cash by greater-fool investing -- they have no intention of staying and building product companies after the crash. A portion of these that don't anticipate the crash's timing will lose lots of money.
Unfortunately, if Wall St. and such package this debt along with other debt that is bought by institutional investors/bonds/pensions, or if these guys and other wide-reaching funds buy the volatile debt themselves, then everyone who is connected to that (including grandma, including aunt's house) is exposed to that risk. This is what will decide whether it's going to be a tech bubble problem or a financial crisis.
And almost surely, the job market will dive for a while [1], since jobs depend on cash flow, and cash flow will dry up in the time period between the "infra building" state, and the "now we have high-margin products on this infra" state.
[1] The key thing is, and this is the primary problem, what "a while" is, is dependent on broader factors. The ability to pick up pace again after a bubble bursts will be dependent on the general economic health of involved countries as a whole. This is because job market diving leads to consumer/real estate/etc etc falling i.e wide reaching negative feedback loop = "macro slowdown"