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by carabiner·10mo ago·view on hn ↗
Satirical IG post I saw from a college professor: "In 2050, I'll be getting emails from high school students about research opportunities, because the average college will require 2 publications to get in and will cost $500k." Fertility rates are plummeting globally for this reason in addition to housing, and earth has reached its carrying capacity. There are no entry-level jobs, because "entry level" now requires years of experience: https://www.zippia.com/advice/entry-level-jobs-pay-experienc....

If you decide to have kids today, you should factor in the cost that they may significant require financial support into their 30s. I know a couple of guys over 40, including a laid-off SWE, living with their parents again.

9 comments
> "In 2050, I'll be getting emails from high school students about research opportunities, because the average college will require 2 publications to get in and will cost $500k."

From my general understanding, those are already the numbers for elite colleges.

I hear complaints about kids that have published research, have started local charities, and have completed most of an undergrad degree already, that they are still getting rejected from top colleges.

Harvard costs about $350k all in for 4 years.

But if you make under $200k a year they wave tuition, and over that you start paying a prorated rate until assistance phases out.

If they are that enterprising and go-getters, I paid some guy almost $10k to roof my house, and he gave me an invoice showing the price of materials were only about $3500 of that. He did it with a few friends in two days, maybe 60 man-hours of work. All they had was a few ladders, harnesses, an ancient truck, and they didn't look like the sort to have wasted much of it on insurance or overhead.
> and they didn't look like the sort to have wasted much of it on insurance or overhead

This is in general a really bad idea. Not only can you be on the hook if they make a mistake with the install, or mess something up like venting that ends up damaging appliances or plumbing, but if one of them falls off your roof, depending on the circumstances you could be personally liable for their possibly life long medical treatment (or end up in an extended lawsuit as they try to claim that you personally directed their work). Make sure your contractors have insurance.

>wasted much of it on insurance or overhead.

Insurance and overhead (eg. safety harass) exist for a reason other than to drain your wallet. Roofing is also a physically difficult job. You won't find many 50+ year old to couch on a rooftop all day, regardless of pays.

I would expect kiddos who are all-in on going to college won't be able to see any other opportunity as acceptable. They've spent almost their entire lives trying to get into a good college. No college may not seem like even an option.
That’s 108 dollars per hour. That seem reasonable?
Yeah it's extraordinary how prepared today's elite undergrads are. Population demand has outpaced spots in these colleges, and so that's why I don't believe "grade inflation" is a thing. The kids are just way, way smarter and more productive than 60 years ago, just as workers are.
Kids cheat today massively more and get parents to demand changes to grades which is something you wouldn't see 60 years ago. It's not higher productively its lower morals and less buy-in from teachers who give in to pressure or look the other way because their authority has lowered. Plus they can't hit students anymore.
This is obviously selection bias, because as a hiring manager, I generally see the most motivated students.

But holy smokes, there are some A-game kids out there that are prepared and willing to put in the work for an opportunity.

I don't remember it being this competitive when I was a student. Maybe I wasn't in that top echelon like they are, but still.

And thus smart and talented high school students are working twice as hard these days with nothing to show for it.
>I hear complaints about kids that have published research, have started local charities, and have completed most of an undergrad degree already, that they are still getting rejected from top colleges.

Are they Asian by any chance?

Well yeah if they've completed most of the degree already why admit them /s
The problems that you’re highlighting are self correcting. If the fertility rate drops, houses and spots at colleges become more available.
First-home buyers aren't the ones causing prices to go up.
New households absolutely are. Whether they choose to rent or buy is secondary.
Agree with both, and you can see this in prep school admissions in the UK, but that adjustment might take a generation.
Definitely might take time. But a generation is 15 years. The timeline the OP was talking about was 30-40 years from now.
True...eventually. But recall the old saw about how long the market can stay irrational.
100%, but the OP is talking about 30-40 years in the future.
Houses are made and maintained by workers. Fewer workers, less building and maintance.
Sure but labor only accounts for a fraction of the cost of housing and that only goes down as we automate more of the process. Even traditional house are now frequently assembled out of prefabricated sections.

There’s also a large existing housing stock.

This is only true if houses are made. Right now there are not very many houses being made in this country
It won't be for a long time. World population may increase well into the 2100s.
But US population will likely peak much sooner than that. Especially as we're starting to heavily limit immigration.
Average age of a home buyer in the us is what? 50-60ish? Should be 20-25.
38 for first-time homebuyers (2024). 56 overall.
Mass self deportation is a fairly easy solution too. It’d cause an immediate glut of homes and jobs. It would also cause economic shock, but that would by and large hurt the capital class. We are in for pain either way, might as well ensure the next generations have ample opportunity.

Cut back/tax on legal immigration, tax remittances harder, and penalize those employing illegal immigrants. None of this ICE kabuki theatre is needed (and frankly is cruel and immoral).

Obviously this won’t happen because both left & right want immigration.

What inventory of housing do you think you will unlock when migrants leave? They are the least likely to own a house.

The jobs they hold are available to you today. No one wants farm wages.

That's not how it works. Housing prices are not allowed to go down, because a massive chunk of Boomer equity is bound up in them. If there's ever a danger of housing prices going down, bailouts will be issued and supply tightened until the "natural" state of things is restored and they go up again.
Boomers won't be alive much longer though?
Bailouts aren't coming this time lol
Boomers are 60-80 years old now. They aren’t going to be the problem 30-40 years from now which is the timeline the OP is talking about.
Tax land value and legalize housing!
The fertility rates thing, is it true everywhere seems poorer countries/people are used to having 4+ children.
It's true everywhere except for Africa. Poorer countries in Latin America are having wayyy fewer babies.
At some point we will start paying men/women to have babies for others.
> There are no entry-level jobs, because "entry level" now requires years of experience

This was my experience leaving college in the dot-com bust 25 years ago, and I heard it was similar for graduates around 2008-2012.

> Fertility rates are plummeting globally for this reason in addition to housing

That's very much not the reason for plummeting fertility rates, those are just your pet issues. It's rare for people to acknowledge the true cause of reduced fertility, because it's a huge bummer and the only even remotely plausible solutions are pretty much unthinkable for all but the most regressive.

I feel like this view suffers from https://xkcd.com/605/. The future is not a linear progression from the present; as linear (or exponential!) extrapolations become progressively more absurd, they get replaced by qualitatively different systems that fit peoples' needs as they exist now.

I have young kids. I don't worry too much about how they're going to afford college education or get a job or afford to retire, because I don't believe college or jobs or retirement will exist in the form it does today. They'll be replaced by systems that actually work in the world that they'll grow up in. My job is to help them survive, and ideally to keep them fed and clothed and housed in the meantime. I'm training them to be adaptable, to think and act for themselves, and to have a good grounding in fundamental skills like reading/writing/rithmetic that I don't think will go anywhere. But the specifics of today's world will definitely be going away, because today's world doesn't work.

I'm not sure why you think that. From what I can see, the undergraduate college experience of today is basically the same as it was in the 1980s. And since then we've had the entire rise of the internet, mobile tech, social media, and all the rest of it. Kids still live in dorms and sit in lecture halls and listen to professors lecture. Why do you think it's going to be much different 15-20 years from now?

Sure there is a lot that can be done online, but that hasn't really impacted the fundamental experience of "going to college" for most young adults who decide to do that.

The cost and benefits have fallen way out of whack. The average college tuition has tripled (after inflation-adjusting) since 1980 [1]. Meanwhile, an increasing number of college graduates are unemployed, and the wage premium for a college education is declining.

The college experience hasn't changed much (indeed, if anything it's improved) because colleges are sinking large amounts of money into providing a good experience. That, after all, is what a lot of students base their purchase decisions on. But the point of college isn't to be a 4-year party & vacation, it's to get an education that will help you the rest of your life. Increasingly a college education doesn't help you lead a better life.

[1] https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-costs-over-tim...

good plan training your kids to be adaptable

youre also right that todays world doesnt work

i think weve already moved too slowly in the US to prepare the societal changes were facing and culture is not adapting, but clinging harder to old expectations. i hope US culture shifts, even if its long overdue, but i dont think it will before many more dramatic economic events

> and earth has reached its carrying capacity

[citation needed]

Why would a citation be needed for a "satirical IG post" set in 2050? Are you providing the time machine?
Read the comment again. The quotation mark ends one sentence before the part I'm talking about.
We need a war.
Are you enlisting?