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It provides an independent fact check on the media and propaganda. The media exaggreated the likelihood of dramatic events constantly so that you keep watching, but this approach aligns the incentives of the predictions with reality not your attention.

It offers actionable intelligence that is difficult to manipulate over time. When probabilities become misaligned with reality, others can take the opposite position to profit from the discrepancy. Maintaining an obviously high percentage inaccurate prediction of 80-90% would be extremely cost prohibitive.

For example according to polymarket right now, Mamdani will be the next mayor of NY, no one really knows with any certainty when the shutdown will end, the risk of a major war with China and Taiwan remains low. The chances of a Ukraine ceasefire are also extremely low.

Contrast this with YouTubers talking about Ukraine who’ve been discussing some game changing war technology that’s going to end the Ukraine war soon for the past years. If you followed them, you might have thought the war was about to end for the past few years.

Are you curious about GPs opinions specifically, or do you struggle to see how knowing the future with greater accuracy is useful?
They dont allow us to see future wuth greater accuracy
Maybe that can be quibbled, but they certainly don't neutrally allow us to see the future with greater accuracy. They interfere with what they're predicting.

There's no prediction market which will let you bet on Trump's assassination, and for good reason. But a lot of lower-profile pernicious bets slip under the radar.

While it’s true that there is an observer effect to prediction markets, that phenomenon isn’t unique to them. It applies to most systems.

The news media routinely makes predictions. When enough people believe and act on those forecasts, the prediction itself can influence the outcome. In that sense, collective expectation becomes a causal force and I would argue that there are many different people who aim to harness propanda or the media to change behavior.

There are legitimate concerns. As South Park humorously suggested this season, that some might try to manipulate prediction markets for profit. However, overall, these markets remain an extraordinary tool for generating accurate forecasts across a wide range of global events.

It’s difficult to imagine scenarios like China invading Taiwan or the war in Ukraine ending because the participants were motivated by their market positions. There are many topics where the reality reaches far beyond the reach of monetary speculation.

On the other side, it’s also possible that people who have priviledged information are using that information to place bets against inaccurate predictions and we’re benefiting from that information in the prediction market. It’s not necessarily fair to the participants as it’s insider trading, but it gets a better outcome for the observer seeking the information.