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by 7777777phil·8mo ago·view on hn ↗
You're right that Russia was an outlier in 2022; but as others already said, the landscape has shifted considerably since then. The argument isn't that most countries face immediate sanctions risk, but that the uncertainty itself changes the risk calculation. Even traditional US partners are now hedging (or considering their options) gold holdings at central banks recently surpassed US Treasury holdings for the first time in 30 years. It's less about countries thinking 'we'll definitely be sanctioned' and more 'the tail risk is now visible and needs to be managed.' That calculus might drive gradual diversification even among countries with good US relationships.