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(Note that I have not researched each of these companies individually... There may be errors in the above list (some may be DRAM resellers, some may be defunct, etc., etc.))

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The first three dominate 95+% of the market.

That's true.

Coke and Pepsi dominate the worldwide drink market, but due to the immense size of the market, there are always up-and-coming competitors.

Go to your local superstore, supermarket, or your local convenience store.

You'll find Coke and Pepsi, lots of it, but you'll also find no-name drinks and sodas from drink companies that are not as well established yet or well known.

That those exist is a good thing, at least for consumers, at least for those that consume, because the root of all consumer prosperity brought on by capitalism (global trade = capitalism, regardless of the names of countries involved) comes from the relentless competition brought on by two or more companies, ideally as many as possible...

We would not have the super high performing desktop computers we have today if it were not for the historic early competition between AMD and Intel (later entered by other CPU manufacturers), and we would not have choice if it were not for competition.

Getting back to DRAM manufacturers, The first three do dominate 95+% of the market as of 2026.

But there might be some interesting up-and-coming smaller companies to watch...

Let's remember that OpenAI came from basically nowhere -- to give Google a run for its money -- as did Google with Microsoft's behemoth 20+ years ago...

What new DRAM manufacturer might be the next up-and-coming DRAM manufacturer in the space?

Well, we don't as-of-yet know... but the space is an interesting one to watch, to be sure!

But you are correct!

The first three do currently dominate 95+% of the market as of 2026...

Isn't there higher barriers to entry than OpenAI and soda? They were able to compete with "commodity" hardware. A DRAM manufacturer would need expensive machines from ASML, right?

I'm not forced to drink Coke or Pepsi if I go to a bar. Only if I specifically want a cola I very likely get whatever cola they got (likely either Coke or Pepsi). If you want to use a computer, it will have DRAM, and you'll end up with one of the DRAM hardware manufacturers.

> Let's remember that OpenAI came from basically nowhere -- to give Google a run for its money -- as did Google with Microsoft's behemoth 20+ years ago...

Yeah, but the capital behind it certainly did not:

> OpenAI was initially founded as a nonprofit organization by Altman, Greg Brockman, Elon Musk, Jessica Livingston, Peter Thiel, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Infosys, and YC Research. When OpenAI launched in 2015, it had raised pledges for $1 billion. [1]

Altman was well connected, with rich friends. People like Thiel and Musk. Under the guise of a non-profit they eventually pulled a rug to make OpenAI for-profit.

The barrier of entry for hardware design is also just plain different than software. There was a good talk on that recently on 39c3.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Altman

We know, minimally, from Perplexity's list above, that there exist multiple alternative DRAM manufacturers other than Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, that have completed at least some of the barriers of entry to the high-end DRAM market, and possibly many...

We also know that the world is full of capital -- as you suggest.

That capital is continually looking for investment opportunities, and DRAM is a huge, huge market...

When capital invests in markets, any barriers to entry are moved, if not outright displaced (i.e., OpenAI, $1 billion, etc.).

Point is, we don't know what the future will hold...

I think it's a good bet that cheaper DRAM, DDR5 and otherwise, will be coming down the pike soon, once production catches up, once supply outpaces demand...

Seems more likely OpenAI or one of the hyperscalers would continue vertical expansion into chips but likely only supply themselves--possibly making proprietary variants only they could use anyway

Seems to be the case with CPUs although I know that's a bit different since they're contracting with existing fabs

And the next two are 95+% of what's left after that.