I just checked, and Instagram’s password reset flow allows requesting a reset using an email address, a phone number, or even the username [1]. The username is public information, so triggering password reset emails is relatively easy. At scale you would need IP rotation and some basic automation, but it is not particularly hard to generate a large volume of reset emails and create confusion.
From an attacker’s perspective, this does not grant access to accounts or sensitive data. It mainly causes users to receive unexpected reset emails and possibly panic or change their passwords. That aligns more with nuisance or malice than with a meaningful breach.
I do not have definitive proof, but based on this behavior it seems plausible that the reported wave of reset emails could be explained without any large scale data leak.
[1] https://www.instagram.com/accounts/password/reset/ (screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/4x5HPLx)