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by ortusdux·7mo ago·view on hn ↗
"Canada has agreed to allow an annual quota of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the country at the tariff rate of just 6.1%"

https://electricautonomy.ca/data-trackers/ev-sales-data/2025...

"Canada recorded 45,366 new zero-emission vehicle registrations in Q3 2025, accounting for 9.4 per cent of all new vehicle registrations in the quarter, according to the latest report from Statistics Canada."

"Of the total, 26,792 units were battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), while 18,574 were plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). "

So this would represent about 1/4 of current annual EV sales.

4 comments
> He said there would be an initial cap of 49,000 vehicles on Chinese EV exports to Canada, growing to 70,000 over five years.
I always wonder why people settle on a number like 49,000 when 50,000 is sitting right there, looking you in the face.
There are some theories of negotiation that say it's good to pick an overly specific number like that specifically to imply that you've given it thought and aren't willing to change it without getting something in return.
49,000 is just as a specific as 48,624 is.

Besides it sounds like they were specifically looking at quarterly amounts of EVs sold when they made the deal

Same reason they set prices at $49.95
No. The reason $49.95 works because $4x.xx price on first look looks better than $5x.xx price ($50.00).
In a country with 42 million inhabitants this doesn't seem like a big change even for canada, let alone for the global economy.
It’s a complete sea change. I feel Canada only set tariffs on cars out of some deference to the US auto industry. I don’t want to use slippery slope thinking, but this to me smells like rolling out a Canadian auto market that is not dependent on the US.

For the average family, being able to spend significantly less on a car is a big deal.

Keep in mind that the US auto industry is also very much a Canadian one. A lot of Big Three stuff happens across the border in Ontario.

But all the policy support that would have let North American automakers build up a competitive position with China is gone, so this is more about just acknowledging reality now.

> Keep in mind that the US auto industry is also very much a Canadian one.

As someone who's worked in the auto industry (in Canada) I have to 'hard disagree.' The big three have proven time and time again that we (Canadians) are second-class citizens when it comes to how they operate the facilities built here. Even before any of this nonsensical tariff nonsense, billions in government money has been given to the likes of Stellantis and GM over the years in an effort to keep jobs in Canada, with them putting in the bare-minimum effort to satisfy people in the short-term and thanking us by continuing their movement of production out of the country. Instead of trying to talk the president down from his pointlessly harmful tariffs, or doing what Toyota/Honda have done in pivoting to building worldwide models beside the domestic ones, the big three are gleefully taking the opportunity to expedite the closure or downsizing of facilities here.

Outside of the chuds who 'need' a pickup truck to satisfy their fragile ego, sales of "American" vehicles are starting to drop, with buyers choosing domestically-produced where possible (like the Toyota Rav4, Lexus NX/RX, or Honda Civic/CR-V).[0]

[0]: https://ca.investing.com/news/economy-news/market-share-of-u...

I think that was true up until last year. Clearly the new administration wants nothing to do with Canada except extract.
Yeah there was never any competing with china, our industry just relies on our market using different values to purchase a car.

It’s tough to convince most price-inelastic people they shouldn’t buy a car that is 1/2 price, even if it has fewer features.

Edit: to be clear I meant that the US did not compete, not that they could not compete

It was. Then the U.S. turned into whatever the hell you call all that.

Now we have U.S. automakers who are derefential to the current regime's leader and are pulling out. The Federal and Ontario government both tried to somehow make them happy, but you can't make that kind of monster happy. So it's time to move on.

Big auto style auto manufacturing, with American-style union relations and a messy web of parts suppliers was never going to be globally competitive. GM and Ford deserve to go bankrupt with their current backwards practices.
> the US auto industry is also very much a Canadian one

Trump's message is loud and clear. The Canadian Prime Minister has said, "the past relationship with the US is over."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y41z4351qo

The US President: "US does not need cars made in Canada; free trade deal is irrelevant"

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/article/we-dont-need-cars-made-in-canada-trump-says-calls-cusma-irrelevant/
US Ambassador: "US does not need Canada":

    https://www.pressreader.com/canada/sentinel-review-woodstock/20260116/281629606665800
It was about the mess around Huawei exec if I recall correctly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_case_of_Meng_Wanzh...

> ...smells like rolling out a Canadian auto market that is not dependent on the US.

Feels like being dependent on both the Chinese _and_ the Americans to me, which doesn't exactly feel like a win.

It'll be interesting to see how the Chinese EVs compete "fairly" in Canada. North America has had a lack of choice in automobiles at least as long as I can remember. There are so many cars that are available in Europe or Asia that I wish were available here. But at the same time consumer choices are also very different. So will be interesting to see what the uptake of Chinese EVs are like.
> I feel Canada only set tariffs on cars out of some deference to the US auto industry

That is exactly what they did.

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/electric-vehicl...

> The tariffs follow a May announcement by U.S. President Joe Biden of 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese-made EVs.

> Trudeau said on Sunday night that he had discussed China and other national geopolitical issues with U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan.

> smells like rolling out a Canadian auto market that is not dependent on the US

The last federal election was almost entirely decided by which leader made the best pitch to Canadians on who would be better equipped to handle Donald Trump and to make the economy less dependent on the USA as a whole.

Nothing to do with “unfair, non-market policies and practices […] and China’s intentional, state-directed policy of overcapacity and lack of rigorous labour and environmental standards”? I suppose that doesn’t even register anymore to the average selectively outraged parochial Canadian.

[0] https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2024/08/can...

It’s just the beginning is my guess. If BYD or CATL commits to a factory /assembly in Canada I would expect limits to be raised on this as progress is made. Or if this goes well we could see limits raised as China drops Canadian product tariffs further.
The current (or next) admin would take Alberta and Saskatchewan. They'll propose that the residents secede from Canada and join the US.

There's probably enough political willpower in these provinces and money (paid by the US) to turn this into a real movement.

And from there, Yukon and the Northwest Territories are easy next dominoes.

There's a vocal minority of perpetual malcontents in Alberta arguing for secession. But even those nutters don't want to join the US.
My gut reaction is there is no way China is setting up vehicle manufacturing or assembly in Canada because the American President would go absolutely nuts. Canada is increasing ties and joint ventures with Canada but manufacturing would be a bridge too far for our little man in the White House.
It is getting to the point where lots of countries will stop caring how the US feels about things.

Between threatening, and some actual military intervention, with Iran, Venezuela, Greenland, Canada, Denmark, Mexico, and itself the US is spread pretty thin at the moment. I think Canada will slowly open up to China and boil the frog if you will.

If they are smart about it then it will probably work out really well for them. They will need a new market for their oil, timber, ..etc since the US is no longer a reliable partner. This will take years but as long as China doesn’t do something dumb like invade Taiwan they can just sit back and win while the US is busy self destructing.

I say this as an American, also a veteran, who loves his country but hates what is currently going on.

Maybe Canada inks a deal to allow Mexican manufactured Chinese EV's?
If you're selling 49000 electric vehicles, and the tariff reduced from $CAN 50k (estimated cost of a new electric vehicle; 100% tariff tax) to 3k (6%), saving your customers $2.3B, that seems significant to me?

I'm only trying to give a feel for them numbers, I did check the average selling price for a new BYD

Cars last ~25 years, 49,000 * 25 = 1.2 million Chinese EV’s on the road in a steady state.

Not such as huge shift in total, but EV’s are still a small percentage of total vehicle sales in Canada.

25 years?! Hardly

https://www.brokerlink.ca/blog/how-long-do-cars-last-in-cana...

> In 2020, the Automotive Industries Association of Canada (AIA Canada) reported the average age of Canadian vehicles was 9.7 years, though many industry experts believe that number is closer to 10.5 years today.

If the average car on the road is 10.5 years old, and you assume a flat demand, it is consistent with the lifespan of all cars being exactly 21 years.

(if you look at a random sampling of 100 cars, 5 will be from this year, 5 from 2025, and so on until you've counted the 5 cars from 2005 ; the average age will be 10.5 years)

If you assume that there are more cars sold every year (due to demographics: way more humans are alive today than in 2005), then this is consistent with a useful lifespan of 25 years or more per car since the "10.5" average is skewed younger because of the age pyramid bias.

Recent CATL independent battery testing has demonstrated 1.25 million mile longevity for battery modules produced. While EV uptake may take time, the EVs that are built will be with us for some time. That equates to 62 years of service life assuming ~20k miles/year
> One final factor that can impact how long your car lasts is good, old-fashioned luck. Unfortunately, luck is one factor completely out of your control. You have control over the way you drive, but not the way others drive. Even if you are a defensive driving expert, you can still find yourself involved in a car accident.

So the numbers are calculated including traffic collisions in the life span calculation.

I wonder what the actual number is if you exclude traffic collisions? "How often should I expect to have to replace my car" and "How long should I expect a car to last" aren't quite the same question.

~25 years isn't the average when you account for accidents, rust, and useful economic life of a car. We had 200+ car crashes due to weather in a single day this week in Waterloo, Ontario.
The average car in the us is 12 years old, so expected life of 25 seems reasonable. Not all make it that long but many will
This argument is akin to "80 years definitely can't be the average life expectancy. The number must not be taking premature death into account ; I hear about teens dying all the time"
I think the precedent is big. It does seem like an attempt to adjust of their sudden drop in EV sales last year -

https://www.thestar.com/news/canadian-ev-sales-fell-off-a-cl...

> In a country with 42 million inhabitants this doesn't seem like a big change even for canada, let alone for the global economy.

The premier ("governor") of Ontario, where GM, Ford, Toyota, etc, have manufacturing plants feels otherwise:

* https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-canadian-el...

big auto style manufacturing was never going to be competitive, and propping it up is a jobs program. Just pay them to dig holes and fill them in, and let Canadians have a competitive vehicle market
As an outsider (EU citizen), the message it sends is that they’re willing to negotiate more with China, on a product that would hurt Tesla sales. No, it won’t move the global needle, but the warmer positioning towards China is interesting.
The thing I am wondering is if there was an unwritten agreement to build Chinese BEV plants in Canada. This would give China access to the US market without tariffs and would give Canada manufacturing jobs.
Wait till Canadians find out how good Chinese cars for their price.
I suspect the limit will be revised upward ahead of schedule.
This is a “0 to 1” change in international relations. This doesn’t bode well for Trump’s trade war.
Shitty napkin math says china is saving about $1-$1.5B, so I agree, I'm not seeing the needle more here. What _does_ make sense is that this agreement will continue to evolve over time. What _doesn't_ make sense is the 10-40% battery capacity loss because of temperature, for EVs in canada. I think newer EVs manage temperature issues like this better than older models, but I am unfamiliar with chinese EVs so I can't speak to them.
Where would China be getting savings, here? Unless they are also dropping some tariffs? Canada lowering tariffs saves Canadians money.
> Canada lowering tariffs saves Canadians money.

How many chinese EVs are in canada right now? If the answer is close enough to zero as to be insignificant, how is this saving canadians any money on chinese EVs?

If it helps, we can say something like: this adds $1-$2B gross revenue to china selling EVs to canada. Profit, probably less than a $1B. Needle still not moving.

How are plugin hybrids considered zero emission?
EV sales are going to rapidly expand with Chinese BEVs. They are much cheaper and cost competitive.