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by sensanaty·6mo ago·view on hn ↗
Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??
21 comments
I suspect tens of millions of Americans believe whatever they are told by their trusted "news" source. My only basis is anecdotal though, a dozen or so "maga/trump no matter what" family members and people I grew up with are mostly believing the tariffs are something other countries are paying the US.
FOX News, after their scandal with Dominion, should have been broken down or even shutdown.

They deliberately disinformed the public, there is blatant evidence that the news anchors were aware that they were lying. Not just bending facts a little or opining, but knowingly and purposefully lying.

The pretext of freedom of expression, and more narrowly freedom of press should not *continue* to apply to businesses/individuals which are found liable/guilty of such destructive behavior for the society they operate in.

The same should apply to people like Alex Jones, you had your chance to use freedom and you have wasted it, move on to another profession.

“people who disagree with me must do it because they are stupid and/or manipulated”

It’s true on its surface - most people don’t know about economics, across all political spectrums, and so rely on leaders (which I thought is what liberalism advocates for?).

It’s not a helpful model if you want to understand what’s going on. So then the interesting parts to explore are the reasons they want to believe it, and the reasons given by the educated economists who also support the position

Kind of.

Econ 101 normally covers tax incidence (which side bears the burden of a tax). It has a lot to do with elasticity of both demand and supply. If foreign exporters can easily shift to other markets or adjust production (elastic supply), they'll pass most of the tariff cost to consumers through higher prices. If American consumers have few substitute products (inelastic demand), they'll end up absorbing most of the cost. Of course if the opposite is true, the sellers end up eating the tariff.

The reality is that tariffs typically get passed through to consumers as higher prices, not absorbed by exporters. The exact split depends on how flexible each side can be, but empirical evidence shows consumers usually bear most of the burden.

For that to work, the tariff should be targeted and selective. A tariff on everything can hardly be justified
> pass most of the tariff cost to consumers

What do you mean by "pass the cost"? Exporters do not pay tariffs, importers do. The exporter doesn't give a shit because it doesn't affect them at all.

This is one of the most fundamental misunderstandings of how tariffs work in the first place. The entity that's picking up the cargo at the port is who literally has to pay CBP for them to release the goods. The middleman (say, Walmart) may pass the cost to customers or whatever, but tariffs are entirely inconsequential and irrelevant to foreign exporters. There's no way to send a bill to a foreign entity demanding a tax for some goods that have arrived at a port, after all.

It doesn’t help that the person who imposed these tariffs was indeed claiming the cost would be borne by foreign countries, and the political party in power is repeating the claim ad nauseam on every channel imaginable. It’s a misleading claim, but OTOH the point of making imports more expensive for Americans is to push them to prefer US made products, and if that happens and imports go down then at some level it’s true that tariffs cost other countries. The biggest most important question is whether that’s actually happening - whether US consumers are switching to US-made brands - whether the US even makes alternatives to most of the imports we’re now taxing - whether demand for imports is dropping - or whether the politicians are just collecting a lot more tax money and raising the cost of living.

One big problem with arguing about this is that it will take many years for the effects of the tariffs to settle. If there’s new opportunity for local competition of goods that we’ve been importing, new companies can’t form and meet that demand over night, it will take longer than the president has to see that succeed, which certainly hasn’t stopped him from claiming it already has.

That was one claim about their purpose among many others. But it doesn’t make sense either. Will America start growing coffee? Will we suddenly develop capacity for all of the raw materials and processing we require to make everything in-house?

Tariffs rates by this administration are capricious and punitive, not targeted and strategic.

It won't cost other countries because what is not sold to the US is sold everywhere else.
No, it isn’t that simple. Who bears the most weight depends on the elasticity of the curve on each side. This is confirming demand is more inelastic, which causes it to bear the burden, but could have been the other way around.
Producer has minimal margins and cannot lower their price. Consumer, at least in the immediate future, has more money to spend. Never were the curves going to be any different in this case. Only in the case of a poorer country placing tariffs on a wealthier country with higher margins, would this be any different than the blindingly obvious outcome here.

The only fruit of this is real economic pain for the American consumer. But that was likely the goal, so mission accomplished I guess.

An Asian factory of imperial rulers and scales might have had to bear the burden because they have only the USA to sell to. However if they have products that they can sell to all the world and they manage to, why lower the prices to the USA instead of selling more to other markets?

Countries geographically closer to the USA might reason differently because close countries usually trade more and they have more to lose. But even in this case, if a Mexican or Canadian company can find other markets or discovers that it can keep selling at the same price, they will not bear any of the burden of the tariffs.

Russian like sanctions were applied to Italy about 100 years ago because of colonial wars in Africa. Despite the sanctions lasted only 6 months, Italy discovered that they ended up trading less with the usual partners and more with others. Tariffs are somewhat similar to sanctions as they apply friction to trading.

What does elasticity matter if you no longer make a profit?

Isn't the only thing that could matter - apart from strategic considerations of financing a loss for a time - if the margins are big enough? Who wants to pay for people to take their products below the full cost of making them, apart from some investor-financed hype startups?

There's a weird recursion here though.

I wonder what supply and demand curves look like if you keep telling people that the increased costs will be paid by foreigners and not them?

I assume it has an impact eventually but it must dampen the speed of response if people believe that.

Yes, I don't think these two comments are incompatible.
That only makes sense if you believe Americans constitute the entire global demand, ie if you are a raging moron.
I think this nuance is one of the 1000 pieces that you could say are nuances if you look at them individually.

But, integrally the whole package is just wishful thinking.

I mean, maybe it was elastic for imports from Heard and McDonald Islands. Penguins don't care about margins after all.

I understood part of the point of the tariffs as encouraging on-shore production of some items by increasing the price of their imported counterparts.

Such protectionist practices were used by China to bootstrap their own automobile industry, before they became competitive in the global market. Of course, China had surplus capacity of untapped cheap labor, which America does not.

Barring an evolution in automated manufacturing, or an overhaul of regulatory policy, I'm pessimistic it's possible to accomplish the same in the US. But, in principle, tariffs have a valid place in supporting an emerging local industry.

This has been my understanding for e.g. European chips as well:

First you subsidize and support the creation of currently not commercially viable chip fabs on-shore. Literally handing companies money under some obligation into the future.

Eventually the on-shore chips are produced, but they have higher total cost of ownership for the users: Logistics may be cheaper due to less distance, or more expensive because they are not well-trodden paths yet. Production costs like labor, water, energy could be higher. And the chips could just have higher failure rate, because problems in the new processes need to be kinked out.

But to get local consumers to switch to these switches, one applies tariffs to other sources of chips so the on-shore chips become more competitive artificially, until they become actually cheaper and competitive.

The way it is threatened here isn't in the use case of tariffs at all from my limited understanding.

I don’t think the evidence supports this. This was the marketing of tarifs. But the reality is rates have been changed rapidly, added, dropped - this is just leverage Trump is using to exert his will. Whether it is Greenland, defense spending by NATO, whims of narcissism, or kickback deal making (like NVIDIA or Intel). There is little evidence this policy is designed to increase US manufacturing.
There's this tribe who have been systematically shepherded into having no critical thinking skills.
Many problems in the world would be solved if people actually read Economics 101.
Agreed, and the intention here isn't to block any particular policy outcome, it's to ask that you narrowly scope your tools to what can work, instead of being the 20th failed attempt at price controls or tariffs. (And Econ 101 will teach you when tariffs can make sense, too)
Surprisingly few Americans can read, and surprisingly fewer at a college level.
Does reading Econ 101 make one okay with losing their industrial base to a competitor that hasn't bought into the free market dogma?
Because people vote for the name on the ticket and not the dude he planned to put in charge of the economy who, economically speaking, has always been a madman on a corner soapbox ranting that every other economist doesn’t understand the effects of tariffs. He’s great.
There's been this phrase 'passing costs off to the consumer' that I've heard since I was a kid, used as some kind of indictment against companies raising prices when their costs go up.

Even as a kid I was confused. Where else is the money going to come from?

This is why Econ 101 is important.

There are circumstances where much of the burden of increased production costs is borne by the producer. When demand is very elastic (consumers are price sensitive, or there are many good substitutes), and supply is inelastic (its hard to change the level of output), the suppliers will eat the cost.

You as a consumer buy my cookies for $10.

Out of that price: $3 goes to production cost, $3 goes to tariffs, and $4 goes to profits.

Now the taxes/tariffs are doubled. The producer can up their price to $13, meaning $3 to production, $6 to tariffs and $4 to profit.

But customers might not accept any price higher than $10. They won't buy.

So instead you continue selling for $10 and your costs are: $3 for production, $6 for tariffs and $1 in profit.

That's what people mean when they say that companies are paying the tariffs. They're not profiting as much as before.

In practice it's usually a mix of higher consumer prices, lower company profits, or even some products not being imported anymore.

Profits, bonuses, and dividends.

Which would be a nice balance to the way productivity has rocketed since the late 70s, and has mostly flowed to the top 1%.

Ultimately - and predictably - wealth hoarding becomes economic self-harm. You need distributed prosperity if you want diverse growth and economic and social stability.

I'm confused how you could be confused. Obviously the company that's passing off their costs to the consumer?
In theory, from reduced profits, or from increased efficiency incentivized by fear of reduced profits.
So do buyers also pay for 96% of the advertising, 96% of the manufacturing, etc.?
100+% actually, or else the company is losing money.
Yes, actually? It's baked into the pricing?
I think the record has shown that this administration isn’t very considerate of frivolous things like “fact-based study” or “empirical evidence.”
many of us never imagined this. but about 30% of the country have 0 literacy or critical thinking skills.
An exporter could in theory reduce prices specifically for the US market to avoid sell volume decline (which happens when consumers face higher prices because of tariffs). But in most cases they cannot because profit margins are no high enough to begin with.
Some people believe anything they're told, as long as it's from "their guy". Their guy said that's how they work. Their guy is currently POTUS.
Tax incidence is a legitimately complicated problem. People get it wrong all the time
even if we take the number presented as fact (i'm not sure we should), the articles claim is that:

> "Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden-the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers."

so yeah, the exporter does pay some burden. it's not binary. indeed, tariff exports can be designed in a way to dial either direction. certainly, we could dial foreign exporters burden to 0% – and we could dial it back up to 4% (where we're currently at). but, 4% likely isn't a hard ceiling, either. Of course, the 4% number is an aggregate, not the blanket value across indidual goods (or services).

finally, the effect of tariffs is argued to be wealth transfer to the US Treasury. this is worth thinking harder about. but also, exports may change from whom goods are purchased. thus, it's a diplomatic policy, as well.

This is a whole lot of words with no meaning. Yes 4% is a number that can go up or down, cool? 4% is absolutely meaningless compared to to what was shouted loudly about how other countries would be paying these.

Does it change who customers buy food from? No, because everyone increases their prices regardless of if they’re impacted by tariffs or not.

The 2018 washing machine tariffs are a clear cut example of why tariffs are a garbage strategy.

https://www.warrantyweek.com/archive/ww20250522.html#:~:text...

Price Pass-Through: Studies found that 100% of the tariff cost was passed through to consumers, resulting in an estimated $1.5 billion in additional costs to American families in the first year. The "Unexpected" Dryer Rise: Although tariffs only applied to washers, the price of dryers (a complementary good often sold with washers) also rose by an equivalent amount—approximately $92 per unit—as manufacturers increased prices on laundry pairs. Job Creation Cost: While the tariffs helped domestic manufacturers like Whirlpool, LG, and Samsung shift production to the U.S. and create about 1,800 new jobs, researchers estimated that consumers paid over $800,000 annually for each job created. Outcome: The tariffs resulted in a 49% decline in imports from 2017 to 2019. They expired in February 2023, after which washer prices decreased.

American Conservatives explicitly admitted they are not part of the reality-based community (their words) back in 2004 [1]. In 2017 Kellyanne Conway offered "alternative facts" (her words). In a lawsuit, Fox News admitted that Tucker Carlson's commentary was not to be taken literally. Alex Jones similarly claimed in a lawsuit that his work is "performance art" and is playing a character like The Joker. [4]

It's constantly disappointing how the apparent intellectuals who frequent and operate HN will rally to that side out of libertarian convenience and out of annoyance and disgust at "wokism". And then will inevitably be shocked when everything goes sideways again. Hopefully the education will stick longer this time than it did after G.W.Bush.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality-based_community

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_facts

[3] https://www.npr.org/2020/09/29/917747123/you-literally-cant-...

[4] https://mashable.com/article/alex-jones-defense-performance-...

I guess one explanation of the delusion would be "surely if exporter product is more expensive they will have to lower price to compete with locally made product, and if they do not the local equivalent will just sell better".

Doesn't really work when main reason for product existence on market is either "no equivalent" or "this particular subgroup is only imported" (say given specifically tasting cheese).

It is, but there has been lots of resistance to this understanding. Part of why is repeated lies. Bessent just the other day was going on about how tariffs are the “signature” economic policy of the administration. This is a person who was highly trusted on economic topics, now supporting anything Trump does blindly. Trump keeps saying things like “tariffs brings us trillions”, which is obviously false but a lot of his base accepts it as the truth. One reason why this works is the base has been told that news media lies to them and that only a few people in social media can be trusted.
They believed Mexico pays for the wall.
Tariffs do hurt the exporter nonetheless, which I suspect is a goal in itself for Trump and some of his supporters. Agents aren't rational, this is eco 102.