I do believe this is gonna get commodatized like the internet has. Hardware obviously keeps getting better and cheaper as the time goes by. Sofware in this case is already free/open-weights.

The moats these companies might end up having in near future:

1. Government and enterprise contracts;

2. Even better private models not released to public and only accessible through long-term/exclusive contracts;

3. Gatekeeping the access to millions of their users, especially the non-technical ones, and charging premium for the same;

4. Becoming more and more as the full-stack OS'es to build on top of them.. By proving ready-made foundational layers like knowledge, memory, search/research, sandboxes, deployments, etc...

5. Data/network effects from large-scale usage and feedback loops.

...