That’s ultimately why Ted Cruz spoke out about the Kimmel cancelation. It doesn’t take long until those powers are turned against you.
Also, I’d like think that at this point “Trump got away with it” does not set a new norm.
Meh, I think it's entirely asymmetrical in this era. Democrats aren't good for much, but they're very good at respecting norms.
Trump is willing to do completely unprecedented, vindictive, and malicious things because he's so popular with so many people who are either checked out, nihilistic, corrupt, or just completely unconcerned about the concept of good governance.
It's not a pendulum where there's some super-corrupt Democrat waiting in the wings to do the same things upon their enemies, this really is the Republican party openly embracing kleptocracy and lawlessness.
But thinking of it, your estimate might still hold under that premise.
As a European, I have still hopes for the US though. The western world is already reorganizing itself without the US in the center, but we and the world in general still need the US as being more of an ally than an adversary (at the moment, it's more of an adversary to the western world, sadly).