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High oil prices currently benefits Russia ( Hormuz Shock Sends China and India Racing for Russian Crude - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Hormuz-Shock-Sends-Chi..., and thus gives them an incentive (in the short-term) to distance themselves from the Iranian conflict. It also benefits America, as gas prices have increased due to low supply and logistics issues ( https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europes-G... ), and the US now meets 50-60% of Europe's gas energy requirements (after Russian gas was mostly banned there). So Europe will now be partially funding the Iran war as they have no alternate sources (except turning to Russia, which is currently unlikely). Thus, Europe will have no choice but to support the war against Iran too. Iran of course, has a huge gas reserve that Europe has desired to pipe to itself, which is why the Trump administration is bombing Iran. It hopes to control Iran's energy supply (as it now partially does Venezuela's) and sell that to Europe (so that Europe is forced to depend on the US and never attempts to build an economic relation with Russia, which could translate to a more independent Europe).

Note that one of the stated goals of the Republican Party and the Trump administration is - Make America the dominant energy producer in the world, by far! and - Keep the US dollar as the world's reserve currency ( https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-pa... ). Both are linked - the only way the dollar can remain the reserve currency of the world is if the US control oil and gas production (petro-dollars).

Iranians, in effect, are sadly doomed as victims of modern imperialism (and even face a possible genocide from the current genocidal regime of Israel, as they are unlikely to surrender without a fight). It all depends on how much destiny / luck will favour them. If the other Middle-East countries get really jittery, they will pressure the US to end the war. Or, better yet, Iran may still get to retain some of their sovereignty if they can effectively and successfully block the Strait of Hormuz - China will then be forced to get involved in the war, siding with Iran, as blocking of the Strait could mean the death knell for its economy (40-50% of China's and India's oil and gas is mported through it). If China gets involved, the Russian too would be willing to get involved in the military conflict. India would also be forced to choose a side. We would then see either Word War 3, or Iran falling into the Spheres of Influence of China and / or Russia.

1 comments

Damn. I hadn't thought of that, Given Oil prices increasing too. US can profit from Europe from all of this and also pull it into the conflict. So I think that this is gonna be a massive loss for Europe/Sovereignity in general.

That being said, I have also heard the opposite of it that it is not in profit for US either and I'd love a discussion about it too.

So basically, Strait of hormuz being blocked and Iran is gonna most likely strike de-salination plants of middle eastern countries like Saudi Arabia too.

Strait of hormuz is essential for food as 90% of food comes through this chokepoint which is essentially blocked now and with all of this combined. 2 weeks are some estimates that I hear that issues can come within the middle eastern countries.

They got shit ton of oil but they can't feed their population oil. It puts direct pressure on the monarchy and other countries to stop the war as the population might revolt against the govt. to stop the war. Also doesn't help the religious aspects side of things as arabs are likely to step with iran in this war from the sentiment online that I see.

So the pressure on Middle East countries to fight against US could very well mean the end of petro-dollar and the debasement of US dollar as the global currency as well.

If the people in the middle-east can't drink water and can't eat food. Then a lot of factors change quite significantly

What you are describing will remain a last ditch, desperate, "scorched earth" policy option for Iran. Iran will not bomb the de-desalination plants or the oil infrastructures of its neighbours as that would be a direct attack on these countries. If it does, it wouldn't be just fighting Israel and US but ALL its neighbours who would be forced to join the war. Currently Iran's rational and policy (that it had communicated to their neighbours before the war) is that if any military infrastructure is used on their soil to attack Iran, it would be considered a legitimate target for retaliation. Nearly all of Iran's neighbours host American bases (and some also have American and Israeli intelligence apparatus operating from there) (Iran conducted no attack on neighbors, respects their sovereignty, interests: Army headquarters - https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/03/07/765072/Iran-conduct... ). Iran has carefully chosen to target only these - the American military bases and some hotels and buildings where American and Israeli intelligence operate from. There have of course been some collateral damage, as Iran's missiles are not precise. But Iran has been very careful - for example, when an Iranian missile (or an intercepted piece of it) struck a Saudi oil infrastructure, Iran's government immediately called the Saudi government and apologised to them and claimed that the oil infrastructure was not the target. (Of course, the scenario you outlined is why Iran's neighbour haven't joined the war, despite their antagonistic relation with Iran).

> Iran will not bomb the de-desalination plants

https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/iranian-drone-damages-desal...

> or the oil infrastructures of its neighbours

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/uae-repor...

you were saying?

Iran's logic is simple and easy to understand - if any foreign territory is used to hurt them, they will hurt them in return too. If a water desalination plant in Bahrain was deliberately targeted, the American military there must be responsible for it because Iran has been incredibly restrained in its retaliations:

> Iran said it was the United States that set a precedent for such attacks when it targeted a water desalination plant on Iranian soil. “The US committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X on Saturday. “Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted. Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The US set this precedent, not Iran.” ... Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on Sunday that Iran would be “forced to respond” against neighbouring countries if their territory is used to attack it. - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/bahrain-says-water-d...

(Most western news media are terrible when it comes to middle-east reporting and only tend to parrot and enforce a one-sided western narrative.)

As for the fire in UAE’s Fujairah oil industry zone, as the media report say, it was caused by drone derbis (which means damage was caused by a falling debris of a drone that was destroyed mid-air). Nobody has suggested that Fujairah was the target. (Note that Iranian drones and missiles also lack precision. And Fujairah could indeed be a legitimate target for the Iranian military if the American military depends on it too).

I agree with you but I think there is more to it because At some point the problem for the Middle East countries is that Their food supply comes from this strait, and I don't think that no matter what, Iran will open up this street because of the immense leverage that Iran has been given by controlling this choke point.

I think the subtext of all of this from the Iranian side to all the other Middle Eastern countries is that Israel and US cannot be trusted, and to we will attack the US, we will attack anything US based and to and that the Middle East countries should apply pressure for their own food security on US and Israel to stop the war.

Another point is that Saudi Arabia was recently in the Washington Post Was being considered as part of this alliance of US and Israel, and that Saudi Arabia has a bigger impact in the war. So I think that Saudi Arabia has denied this, but still the fact that Washington Post is saying this means that there is some truth to this, and that the Iranian side could actually confirm it from their side. And this is still a bit messy, though.

I think that Iran will do this course just earth policy without having the regime change for all what it's worth Iran's supreme leader was killed by the US. So I think that Iran will actually apply this coarse death policy if it ever really loses from the US.

Another thing is that this war could maybe just continue on for years and years, but the problem with that is that at some point either the US has to win or it has to back out. And I mean it's all going to be very you know like pessimistic at home. And I don't even believe that even if US tries to withdraw now, like the whole region is so instabilized that I am unsure of how to bring stability back within the region if any.

What are your thoughts on it?

I am not denying that Iran uses that as a leverage on its neighbours to keep them in check. Shortage of food and water is definitely the worst fears of the Arabs everywhere.