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by shagie·5mo ago·view on hn ↗
I'd contend that 2020-2023 is a continuation of the slope from... 2017 with a an outlier for 2020. That is especially evident in the software publisher part of the increase.

And then there's the significant change in computer infrastructure, data processing (AI hype?), web hosting, & related.

If sustainable growth is at the +125k/year (picking a number out of the hat), there is a lot above that line.

Also, this is the plot of the derivative... if there's a line with a slope greater than 1 there, then the corresponding "how many people are in the field" is accelerating.

... And also compare the increase in hiring rate for 2020 to 2023 to 1990 to 2000. The peak for the dot com boom (which was associated with irrational exuberance and hiring for things with no feasible way to make money) was lower than the post covid boom.

Looking at the data, I wonder if the 2023 correction was enough of a dip... and if not, then the other side of it is that the length of the period of job contraction will be longer.