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A study from 2023 estimated a worst case blackout in Phoenix AZ could approach 1% fatality. Considering power demand would be at its highest during a heat wave, the odds of this worst case scenario are quite high.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588

"In Phoenix, where the lowest daily high temperature over the 5 day heat wave is 43 °C and daily minimum temperatures average 32 °C, the rate of heat-related mortality increases by about 700% relative to the Power On scenario, reflecting the extremity of heat exposures in a desert city in the absence of mechanical AC. As reported in Figure 3, the estimated rate of heat-related mortality for the Power Off scenario in Phoenix is 917 (approximate total =13,250 deaths), which approaches 1% of the synthetic population."

3 comments

AZ better ramp up subsidies for home-installed solar then. When conditions are worst, they receive the most relief!

https://resilient.az.gov/resiliency-programs/energy-programs...

"The Office of Resiliency received a termination notice from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regarding the Solar for All grant on August 7, 2025. The program is unavailable until further notice."

Or they can wait for the worst case scenario to actually happen, and THEN do something, as is tradition.

What did people in Phoenix do before modern heat pump air conditioning existed? Plenty of people live in hot arid places on earth. Humans have figured out passive air conditioning since prehistory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_conditioning#History

The problem with cities like Phoenix that is people are used to high levels comfort while building traditional structures in the middle of a desert. To cope, electricity hungry industrialized HVAC systems fight the desert weather. With a daily hot/cool cycle and modern thermal management you'd think the "passive house" would be law there by now.

Yeah; loss of utility heat in the wither has a much higher fatality risk, I'd think. The difference is, many homes have multiple heating methods available to them. If the natural gas is out, use an electric spaceheater, for example. Some homes use electric heat, others natural gas, others heating oil (which is a distributed solution.. or at least, involves a caching layer!)

Many homes have fireplaces or wood-burning stoves, again, for backup.

OTOH typical heating in North America is forced air natural gas. So if either the gas or the electricity is down, you have no heat.