I don't think that chart shows what it seems like it shows. There were plenty of pre-2018 outages that don't show up there: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1545696000&dateRange=custom&...
An alternate interpretation of that chart is "After the microsoft acquisition, they got serious about actually tracking outages."
That said, anecdotally, it's felt much worse over the last 6 months. I'd guess it's a combination of MS-induced quality drops and AI-induced scale increases.
It seems pretty reasonable that the massive surge in AI over the past 6 months has put tremendous strain on GitHub’s infrastructure, and most of these outages are as a result of that one way or another.
I'm guessing its a combo of Azure still not being stable enough and a byproduct of trying to move an entire company's operations from a physical DC into a cloud while its running.
I think GitHub is well past the complexity threshold where the reflective architecting that happens during cloud development can’t be separated from product. If the Engineers were begging for Azure it’d be one thing, but otherwise this is destabilizing churn.
I agree Azure needed a lift to even handle the job, and see the that gap as indicative of a more fundamental challenge. That change is kinda like a skeleton transplant… managements feelings and post-surgery desires don’t necessarily account for the impact and essential difficulty.
- Switching to Azure
- Adding more AI features
- Using AI more for development
- Higher load caused by AI agents
Three of those are top-down direction from MS.
It’s astonishing how bad their software is now. I guess 20 years of outsourcing and bean-counting will do that
But in the past year or so, it does feel like outages are becoming commonplace.
They dropped Ruby on Rails.
Ruby on rails got a bad rap IMO.
It was maybe the epitome of the get shit done internet era, and despite AI's proported productivity gains, I actually don't think we've got anywhere close to the velocity, stability, and simplicity of the peak Rails era just coming out of those PHP days. And teams were actually way smaller than they are now even after all these AI cuts!