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Title claims "due to plains drought" but the article text largely attributes this to increased planting of soy for its lower fertilizer requirements (related to Strait of Hormuz).
Wheat isn’t grown in the same places that beans grow.
If you can, you’re rotating beans and corn every year. (“Roundup ready” of course)
Wheat is on the marginal drier land. Not that they couldn’t plant wheat there but beans are way more profitable and so they don’t.
The plains is by definition more arid, marginal land a step up from pasture/grazing.
A lot of traditional wheat/sunflower/barley/oats has gone over to beans and corn bc roundup and GMO.
On my family’s farm I don’t remember the last time we had wheat crop but that was our staple for like 50 years.
You are wrong and the drought attribution is correct: Winter wheat is the dominant variety in the U.S. and is (and is projected to be further) down due to drought.
"a severe drought in the U.S. Plains has curbed production of hard red winter wheat, the largest variety grown in the U.S... The USDA projected U.S. wheat production in the 2026/27 season at 1.561 billion bushels, down from 1.985 billion in 2025/26, as a severe drought in the U.S. Plains was likely to slash the hard red winter wheat crop by 25% from a year earlier."
"The USDA rated just 28% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition in a weekly crop conditions report on Monday, the lowest rating for this point in the growing season in four years."
This was mentioned in the very first sentence, it's the very first attribution of falling wheat harvest.
Yes Hormuz and rising oil costs are also a factor, a secondary one since they are impacting spring wheat planting decisions as you mention.
At many of these publications the editor chooses the title, not the author. They know full well that most people will read the headline but not the article.
Has the USA's potash supply been reduced due to strained relations with Canada? They are our top supplier, by far.
The fact that the US is growing more soy when one of its largest importers, China, hasn't agreed to an import deal and actually seems to be importing more and more from Brazil instead, is extremely confusing. That is unless the farmers are pretty confident that the US will come to an agreement or failing that, expecting some type of US government bail out/subsidy.
Agreed.
But there's a very weird underlying sentiment on HN where many people seem to directly or indirectly jump whenever they can to downplay the existence of climate change. Sometimes, they are emboldened by articles like this which intentionally use misleading headlines.
You're completely right, though, that in this instance, soy beans were mostly focused on because of consumer trends and less fertilizer need. Wheat is just an expensive crop right now. Also, soybeans would actually be less resilient to drought which furthers your point re: the article headline.
Maybe a positive. Soy Beans are more healthy.
So lower fertilizer demand, and healthier produce, could be a net positive.
Kind of like an oil shortage is driving an increase in EVs and renewable energy.
Finally waking up the US that oil dependence is a National Security issue that renewables are possible solution for. That renewables aren't the 'woke' enemy, but a valid technical option.
So, maybe a net positive.
> growers expanded plantings of soybeans, which require less fertilizer than grains like corn and wheat
It's not the drought per se, it's input costs. Farmers are favouring crops that need less nitrogen and potassium.
Commodities have responded accordingly.
> growers expanded plantings of soybeans
A year ago China stopped buying soybeans from the US is seems ("China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0." - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sa...), was that resumed, or who are all these new soybeans going to? Is it all for national use instead of export?
They all need diesel to run the equipment as well, which is also approaching all time highs.
Western hay prices are as much as double what they were last year for feed: https://www.reddit.com/r/homestead/comments/1ta64d0/breaking...
I'd take that source with a grain of salt.
The website's domain was created 3 months ago (site doesn't even have any entries in the wayback machine) and supposedly pulls from USDA AMS data but when I looked at reports[1][2] I didn't see double prices compared to last year.
Some prices even looked lower? But it was hard to make comparisons because of report structure and data disparity.
[1] CA Hay: https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/2904
[2] CO Hay: https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/2905
When I read this thread, "Interstellar" immediately comes to mind.
Thanks for sharing!
Same region all the new data centers are being built. Unfortunately, humans can't eat data like they can wheat.
Wheat, being basically worthless, is predominantly not irrigated. A data center that draws water from a river or aquifer is not a rival to wheat, which relies on rain. When farmers have invested in irrigation they largely grow something else that's worth actual money.
DNA is technically data, right?
You can eat soybeans, though, which are seeing record production thanks to it supplanting what is affectionately known in agriculture circles as poverty grass.
Shark attacks increase relative to ice cream sales. Unless you have some theory that correlates the two, that you're willing to share, we shouldn't entertain this.
This doesn't have anything to do with data centres.
"All the new data centers" are being built everywhere.
It will only get worse for the next generation as the aquafers are continuing to be depleted.
Yes - but at current rates, it won't take anything like an actual generation to get substantially worse.
Is anyone actually irrigating wheat??
Edit: I'm being downvoted because someone found a source that says 3% of winter wheat in Montana is irrigated.
My point still stands, while yes some percentage of wheat is irrigated it is extremely uncommon.
we live in a closed greenhouse system, the water just doesn't just disappear and most of the Earth is covered in it. Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already, I think we'll be fine. I'm much more concerned about everyone becoming a moron from using AI.
edit: cloud seeding too.
My fault: last weekend I told my wife during a discussion of climate change "hey, at least we don't have to worry that the rains won't come and the crops will fail."
If you enjoy pistachios, eat eat them this year, because you wont see them next year. California produces 70% of global supply and an indian summer this year ruined the crop. Many farmers aren't even planning to harvest.
20% of the remaining global supply comes from Iran, which has its own issues of drought and war.
my costco pistachios were grown in turkiye?
“Dictators stay in power until there are food riots” is what every sociologist I know tells me.
I hope the “riots” are in the form of voting.
This book discuses why regimes are stable. Notably starving disconnected illiterate peoples rarely change things without military cooperation.
"The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics" (Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith)
https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...
The CGP Grey youtube short is an entertaining summary of the books subjects:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs
>in the form of voting.
The current US representatives were voted into, out-of, and back into power.
It is interesting, but will likely remain stable. =3
I've always wondered why we consider it ok when an illegitimate, unjust, or unhinged government uses violence, but not when people on the right side of history? Like yeah don't go smash up small businesses and murder innocent bystanders. But if Trump refuses to leave at the end of his term, I hope someone has the courage to use minimum required violence to remove him.
America was great in 1972 so this is just more evidence America has become great again
. Congratulations:)
I live in the middle of nowhere. The farmers here wheat crop failed last year, and DOGE prevented their insurance claims. They chose to grow oats this year because it's safer for them without the insurance backstop.
They voted for this, but everyone suffers, just like they wanted
Several European economists I follow on YT suggest Americans and Asians should prep now for a temporary food supply chain shortage, famine, and/or collapse resulting from the knock-on effects of petroleum and urea market disruptions.
This is about China. The timing of this article coming out during the Trump-China summit is no accident. The article beat around the bush (pun intended) that the real issue here is that China stopped buying (or seriously cut back) US agricultural products (particularly soy) because of tariffs imposed on China last year that got to over 100% at one point. China now buys significantly more soy from Argentina instead.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is another big factor here as fertilizer prices have massively gone up. Diesel is more expensive too. Many crops this planting season (in the northern hemisphere) haven't been fertilized like they would normally and it's too late now so that will absolutely impact food prices later this year. The Global South will be disproportionately affected.
Lastly, the continued Russia-Ukraine war continues to impact Ukraine's wheat crops. Ukraine is (or was?) often called the "bread basket of Europe" because it was such a significant wheat grower and exporter.
We (the world) are genuinely going to have much more expensive food prices later this year and, in some places, there will be genuine famine.
IDK how many people in China are laser focused on agweb.com for their geopolitical negotiations.
The data comes from USDA's WASDE report which is released every month, between the 8th and 12th. There is no "timing," and people were talking about the expect wheat harvest this season for weeks ahead of Tue's report anyway
> This is about China.
From what your saying it sounds more about Tariffs
The big reason china reduced its purchases of soy wasnt the tariffs though.
the prior high purchases were to refill their reserve after covid lockdowns broke supply changes. now its about full again, so they only need the steady state supply
You are mostly correct, but note that China has resumed buying US soy beans in the past few months.
What lies abundant. Seems like much of our media is just plain openly hostile to truth now. Our unaccountable leaders may have modeled and normalized this for us.
Why do we have a drought USDA?
Farmers have been pumping water out of the Ogallala Aquifer far faster than the aquifer has been absorbing rainwater.
Well if we dont test for it, then is there really a drought???
Little to no rain.