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I read this article. Thanks for that link. I think it odd that they are focusing on drought conditions due to the La Nina conditions we have experienced when we are ramping up now for what has been described as a super El Nino. For much of the areas affected by the drought conditions, there will be an overabundance of precipitation by late summer into next spring.
The article mentions the potential for a super El Nino at the very end but doesn't discuss the effect it could have on content in the map should it go down as modeled. I suspect that a lot of yellows and red will disappear or shift to the north.
I know that the last super El Nino in 2015-2016 followed similar drought conditions due to La Nina such that rainfall at my property, which is normally ~36" (91.4 cm) annually (that's a 20 year average taken here on my property) was below average for the period 2010-2014 by 3-5" (7.62-12.7 cm) and up to 10" (25.4 cm) in 2014. Once La Nina faded it began to rain in August and rained out through December and we ended the year with 68" (172.7 cm) rainfall. In the decades that I have lived here and tracked rainfall that is the wettest year by more than 14" (35.6 cm).
We are currently behind the curve here but I have faith in their predictions since it also comes with a promise of ridiculously hot temperatures to make the last months of the year humid well past normal. It has been cooler than normal so far and drier than normal (La Nina hanging on by a thread). The script will flip and N Texas will again be a miserable place to be if you work outside.
It's worth keeping in mind the danger of such a transition though.
If you go from a drought to a lot of water it generally builds up pretty badly as dried out dirt doesn't absorb water very well.
If the prediction holds true it may become a year with a lot of water damage/flooding in these regions.
Let's hope for the best though.
I agree that we should hope for the best. We should prepare for the worst too since the updated models are indicating that the super El Nino event is very likely. People across the region that will be affected can expect an unusually wet and hot end to the year. We have time to prepare.
There won't be much we can do about soil absorption since keeping your yard watered will also cause runoff if the soil is saturated.
We just need to follow the common sense guidance to avoid driving into flooded underpasses and do not drive past barriers. Remember that at night it will be difficult to spot flooded sections of highway due to reflections so you will be dependent on center lines and painted markings and if they disappear it could indicate water depth sufficient to obscure them. Hydroplaning is a serious concern so drive more slowly and remember that if you begin to hydroplane you need to keep your wheels pointed in the direction that you need to travel and let off of the accelerator. The pooled water and sudden decrease in speed will put your tires back on the road surface so your vehicle will zip off in the direction that it is pointing. Check your tread depth before autumn and replace your tires if they are worn.
Carry a rain slicker or poncho with you in case traffic conditions force you to stop due to accidents or water across the roadway. You'll be a lot more comfortable dry than wet.
I intentionally bought property with a house that is on a hill with drainage away from the house so flooding isn't something that I worry about. I know that most other people will have to deal with flooding, especially around here where there are so many new construction issues - new concrete driveways, asphalt streets, and channelized creeks. Places that have never flooded in the past could flood now due to loss of open ground to home construction.
I am a couple decades into restoring my place to native prairie grasses, wildflowers, and trees so my place manages rainfall as it always has. I don't have much soil to absorb the rainfall though since I live on a limestone outcrop with poorly developed soils.
I hope people around here will follow guidance and be safe and use common sense when the rains come. I'm ready with my 4x4s to drag them out of their situations if they need a hand though.
Thanks for you metric conversions. Very considerate of you!
Just an fyi, precipitation is usually measured in mm. There is no need for the decimal point in your conversions.
I knew that and still messed it up! Thanks for the reminder. I'm glad the conversions helped you follow the post.
Some odd comments on this. It's not a matter of debate, wheat futures reflect this.
It seems to be a double whammy on the wheat side. Lower planting this year combined with drought suppressing these smaller crops. Wheat down 35%, Corn down 6% but Soy beans looks to be up due to lesser reliance on fertilizer.
Real question is how will next years crop handle the supply constrains due to the Straight (outta) Hormuz lock down.
USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought - https://www.agweb.com/news/usda-projects-smallest-us-wheat-h...
Wheat Acreage Continues Decline as Producers Find More Lucrative Crops - https://www.proag.com/news/wheat-acreage-continues-decline-a...
Some odd comments and voting patterns on a lot of things. It's getting weird around here.
Well, it's a weird site. Most of my interactions are through the /active page or specific search terms. When I started to do that in about 2021 it certainly made it a lot easier to find what I as curious about.
Unfortunately, what I wanted to know also changed, in that I now use the site to keep tabs on the thoughts of folks are or who fund and work for hard-right technocrats.
There are, of course, many other folks on the site.
At the same time, the US techno-fascists both have an outsized influence on our lives and it's much harder to find their voices in other places: folks who, for instance, think Peter Thiel is of course quite sane and probably not trying to figure out a way to kill vast chunks of us off (and that it would be a reasonable thing if he were).
I would say there was a marked turning point of weirdness right around jan 31 2025
It should be pretty obvious that any major social media website is fully botted these days. News is coming out how reddit, twitch e.t.c. are full of fake accounts. This site is no different. Try to say something negative about Apple products and you get instantly downvoted.
> wheat futures reflect this.
In what way? Wheat hasn't even returned to early 2025 price levels yet. It is up relative to where is has been recently amid what were very low prices, but still have a long way to go to get where things had been through much of the 2020s.
Which comments?
Yea but see, that disagrees with my feelings and my political cult leaders stance, so it must be incorrect. And if you are stating obviously wrong things then you are a seditious liar.
/s for anyone who doesn’t understand the mockery
I occasionally check out the map on the drought monitor website. The current map does not look significantly different than maps I have seen over the past 10 years.
The areas of extreme drought may change each year, but the total area affected seems rather ordinary to me.
Duration, duration, duration.
The US southwest is now in the longest period of severe drought in at least 1200 years.
And we're still selling what little water we have to foreign & domestic corporations for a fraction of what residential citizens pay.
We are also refusing to maintain critical water-system infrastructure, setting ourselves up to lose critical water storage capacity [1].
We can get fined for washing our cars at certain times (although it's rarely enforced), but nobody ever turns the screws on the business machine.
[1] https://fox5sandiego.com/news/local-news/north-county/plan-f...
Exactly. I feel like people forget about statistics and trends when it comes to the climate.
Nearly every long term trend and statistics shows climate and environmental conditions getting worse, and it's almost solely due to human activity.
Cherry picking short term events isn't useful, especially when the climate getting worse often means an increase in the duration between normal events and an increase in extreme weather.
not including California? The California drought recently ended and now all the reservoirs are quite full.
Does amount of land usable for farming have to be halved in a decade for you to be concerned?
Dry here (southern IL). 12 years ago spring would be cool, drizzly, cloudy. Now (past 3 years) it's warm, dry, sunny. Periodically we get this big wind that lasts for a couple days.
I predict that we will acknowledge that tree loss and city sprawl are significant drivers of drought and there will be a massive "plant trees" campaign someday.
Agriculture and city replacing trees wiped out the Mayans: https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2012/08/20/forest-razing-b...
Tree loss being a 60% contributing factor to the Mayan case. When the Mayans ran out of water, their civilization collapsed, and their technology and advanced astronomical science faded from memory.
We are speed running toward the same peril in modern times.
Your prediction came true decades to centuries ago, depending on where you are in the world. Urban forestry has been an important part of city planning for these (and more) reasons for quite awhile.
Related:
USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
In some places not strictly in drought the water cycle is still completely messed up. A few huge winter storms make up for lack of precipitation in the rest of the year and then promptly melts off. So the yearly average looks good on paper but it's dry as hell in summer/fire season with no snowmelt throughout the year.
As a kid in the Midwest (Minnesota) we'd get tons of snow and it would hang around until June or July since snow is such a good insulator - the big piles wouldn't melt I mean. Last time I remembered this happening maybe was 2005.
Now it snows, melts, gets cold, repeats and we don't really get any build up except maybe a big storm leaving enough for a week or two.
In Europe drought is measured from the amount of water at different depths. I would be surprised it’s different in the US.
computah, build 200 more data centers
So that‘s „making Amerika dry again“ trump is promising?
I hope people will not buy into that weird conspiracy theory about the destroyed weather radars in Iraq and its consequences
I have not heard of this one but I am intrigued.
Always interested to see how creative people can be in trying to fit the undefinable and uncontrollable world into a narrative box.
Yeah, right. Hope people won't believe that weird conspiracy theory about how the government can change weather and has had the technology for years.
"Drill, baby, drill"
Title is somewhat incorrect: more than 60% of the U.S. is facing drought, making it overall the worst in decades. The data do not show that the drought in each area is the worst in decades.
Soon USA will bring democracy in exchange for water.
Just a reminder from January: "California completely drought-free for 1st time in 25 years after winter storms"
https://abc7.com/post/california-has-zero-areas-dryness-firs...
> "California completely drought-free for 1st time in 25 years after winter storms"
California is like 5% of the land mass of the contiguous 48 states.
Just because it is out of a drought doesn't negate the article.
Oh weird, everything must be fine then, I still see snow sometimes even!
I think the “first time in 25 years” bit reinforces the idea of persistent drought being a problem.
The drought map used here is partly subjective opinion.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/WhatistheUSDM.aspx
> Who draws the map?
> Meteorologists and climatologists from the NDMC, NOAA and USDA take turns as the lead author of the map, usually two weeks a time. The author’s job is to do something that a computer can’t. When the data is pointing in different directions, they make sense out of it.
> How do we know when we're in a drought?
> No single piece of evidence tells the full story, and neither do strictly physical indicators. That’s why the USDM isn’t a statistical model
Doesn't seem like all climate scientists are fans of it either. From a 2022 critique of a news story also based on this map:
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/04/is-large-portion-of-w...
> The essential message is that weather and climate data do not support the claims of extreme or severe drought in eastern Washington this year.
> There is no expectation of water problems over or near the Columbia Basin. The Drought Monitor graphics, which are created subjectively, are sufficiently problematic and deficient that they should not be considered or applied to any serious decision making.
And a lot of hard work, sounds like: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData/DroughtCla...
> [Authors] bring together the physical climate, weather and hydrology data and reconcile that with local expert feedback, impact reports and conditions observations. The author is also responsible for weighing different indicators based on what’s most appropriate for a particular place and time of year. In the West, for example, winter snowpack has a stronger bearing on water supplies than in the East
It is, and the subjective assessment component is a black box. That said, the USDM has many other components that are objective, so it's far from being a subjective measure -- I would argue that the Fed Funds rate, for instance, is determined far more subjectively.
Also, there just isn't a more objective measure of drought out there, let alone a fully objective measure.
Also also, it's unclear to me that this black box is being gamed any harder than most other black boxes in our system. If you want to game agriculture, you game the farm bill.
i think calling it "subjective opinion" is kind of disingenuous. it is a subject matter expert interpreting the data. there is a vast gulf between that and someone else simply offering their opinion on the matter.