We know how it turned out, but the people there waiting for the test did not know how it would turn out. The bomb might not have worked. Or it might have ignited a fusion reaction in the atmosphere and destroyed the world. Hans Bethe had sat down and done the calculations on that exact scenario and said it would not, but there was always the possibility of missing something. Enrico Fermi was offering bets on it on the day of the test, as a dark joke.
In the end it worked as expected; one of the most successful and horrifying experiments in the history of science.
Of all the photos from the test the one that struck me the most looking through them today was the photograph of the plutonium core being carried into the ranch house for assembly in a little heavy box. It’s a small thing, about the size of a grapefruit, although twice as dense as lead. It looked just like a sphere of any old metal, but it was something profoundly alien, made inside nuclear reactors. And it still is so strange to me that something that small has so much energy locked up inside and that, by imploding the little sphere just right, we can let the demon out.
Trinity is one of the pivotal moments in the history of our species and eighty years on we still don’t know what the eventual consequences of it will be. The bombs are still here waiting for us and they still pose all sorts of terrifying questions for the future that most people prefer not to think about.
When one looks at the history one needs to remember that these were scientists and engineers who behaved as such. My grandfather, for example, was the sort of person who always loved blowing things up. He'd nearly blown up the family home as a kid when given a chemistry set ... and he studied chemistry because he liked blowing things up ... and he wrote a PhD thesis about the shock waves generated by blowing up a really big (conventional) bomb. It all gets dressed up as studying shock waves and so forth, but it's really kids blowing things up. They get caught up in the challenge of it. The consequences, political, moral and otherwise, are not forefront in the thinking of most. None of them are innocent, but some have misgivings or second thoughts. Others are more cynical and ambitious and even sinister. There are Oppenheimers and there are Tellers.
"The “near zero” chances Oppenheimer unnerves Groves with in-movie probably come from Manhattan Project physicist Arthur Compton, who told author Pearl S. Buck in a 1959 interview that they’d calculated the odds at “slightly less than one-in-three-million.” In 1975, Bethe denied that there had ever been a less-than-one-in-three-million chance of setting the atmosphere on fire, but the idea had already lodged itself in the public imagination."
https://www.inverse.com/science/did-oppenheimer-really-worry...
Someone's got to explain to me how this was even remotely plausible.
We've had orders of magnitude more energetic events in earth's history that they would be aware of (dinosaur slaying asteroid for instance). These didn't manage to destroy the earth by turning the atmosphere into a fusion reactor. Surely they were aware of this.
So was the theory that neutrons are somehow special in a non-thermal way for causing fusion (not fission). And specifically that a concentrated neutron burst could somehow set off a chain reaction? And I guess that [edit: solar] neutrons weren't concentrated enough to cause this even at a detectable level?
> If you’d like to pinpoint the instant when the world entered the nuclear age, 5:29:45 a.m. Mountain War Time on 16 July 1945
So, I went digging because time zones have been a weird fascination for me due to dealing with all their annoyances as an engineer, and found this article from 2019 [0]!
From the article:
> In February 1942, Congress implemented a law instating a national daylight saving time to help conserve fuel and "promote national security and defense," which is why it was nicknamed "war time." The time zones were even known as that: Eastern War Time, Pacific War Time, etc.
[0] https://www.war.gov/News/Feature-Stories/story/Article/17791...
edit: grammar
[1] https://www.firstwebombednewmexico.com/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downwinders#Current_status [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_Exposure_Compensatio...
> On July 4, 2025, in a historic and unexpected move, Congress expanded RECA legislation, finally awarding overdue compensation to New Mexico families. Our newly revised film captures this emotional victory.
Were the families (at the very least) compensated to some extent at last?
You can see the few little bits of tower legs, what is left of the trinitite on the ground, and are surrounded by the enormous quiet of the empty desert all around you. It definitely felt like a haunted place. Not in the literal "there are ghosts here" way. Similar feeling to what I had at Dachau. Just very uncomfortable to be there.
It looked like someone set off a bunch of chemical explosives. That’s not how it looked in real life. Totally bizarre decision. I don’t know if they were trying to avoid effects on purpose of go gritty and retro or something but the “unearthly cosmic horror” feel of the first a-bomb blast is important. It’s what led Oppenheimer to recite “I am become death, destroyer of worlds.”
/hah very articulate of me for this early in the morning
I highly doubt it. The last human will likely live many years in agony, fighting disease and starvation.
People start dying off, and all of a sudden housing prices go down. There's more parks open. The air feels fresher gradually. It's a gradual decline as human influence tapers off near the end. I think it will be more "The Last of Us" than "Mad Max"
"Always/Never: The Quest for Safety, Control, and Survivability." (part 1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQEB3LJ5psk
They cover both the technology itself and its history, including the incidents you are reading about. These people are the ones who developed the methodology and the technology for nuclear device safety, or at least a significant chunk of it. I think it has recently become much more mathematically heavy, with zero knowledge proofs and other fancy stuff used to talk to the locks in the devices.
Imagine a cosmic being looking at the Earth through a microscope, and seeing this bubble pop on the surface in mid-20th century. Then another, and another pop. Some of them evaporated hundreds of thousands of human beings, melting and dying in gruesome ways you can't imagine in the worst nightmares of hell. Later these organisms learn to harness this destructive force for more useful and productive purposes, powering their cities and data centers for machine intelligence. And this massive amount of energy is released by breaking up the tiniest particles of matter, the nucleus of an atom, how clever and strange is that. Well, no more strange than the phenomenon of life itself, I suppose.
But likewise, there was only a few decades between the first airplane and the first person on the moon (although rocketry goes back hundreds of years. Actually TIL rocketry is older than Newton's laws of physics)
The survival of the human species relies on its ability to expend energy. Grow food? We need gas to run the tractors.
Travel to your jobs? Gas or electricity.
Travel to another planet? Massive amount of energy.
Ride away on a spacecraft to another solar system? Massive amount of energy.
The amount of energy required to do these things is probably more than the amount of energy required to erase ourselves from existence. And when we have the ability to harness that energy, do we really think we are responsible enough to not do that, accidentally or adversarial-y?
It had no music and actually (if I recall correctly) had no sound at all for what seemed like the longest time.
It really did make the extreme gravity of the event sink in very deeply.
Fully agree with libraryofbabel's comment here of it being "one of the most successful and horrifying experiments in the history of science".
https://www.purplewave.com/auction/210310/item/IG9246/US_Arm...