> Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't?
Unlikely. They thought a dose of shock and awe would get people out on the streets for a rapid regime change and it didn't work.
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I don't think U.S. intelligence thought any part of this war was a good idea or justified. There were two National Intelligence Estimates (a panel of all 18 agencies in the IC) that concluded Iran was not developing nuclear weapons.
There has also been reporting that a top general in the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned Trump about starting a conflict with Iran[0]. The only party that believes, or wants others to believe that Iran is a huge threat, is Israel.
0: https://www.axios.com/2026/02/23/iran-strike-trump-gen-dan-c...
So the only reasons to attack Iran where
1. Trump had a bee in his bonnet since the 80s
2. Iran has oil
3. Israel willed it
4. Disrupt global energy markets
5. All of the above