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The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
> The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

And you can consistently beat the market as long as passive index investors believe in efficient markets.

Show me an index fund that persistently beats passive index funds. https://www.investopedia.com/warren-buffett-usd1-million-bet...
> Time to short the market.

post your position for all to see if you're so confident. Time in market is way better than timing the market. I'd rather ride through a downturn, buying at the same pace i always do, and come out the other side than try to time it. Been there done that and i got burned every time.

Shorting when there is a mania is way, way too risky
> Time to short the market. We are at peak bubble.

I've seen this comment on HN at least 5 times already.

I've been seeing this sentiment since I got into professional software development nearly 20 years ago.
This is actually the pin everyone was looking for that will pop this AI bubble, including the token cost falling in China and the release of open models that are good and run locally.
It could be, but the market could bounce right back. And if it does, it's hard to know who will emerge stronger. Anthropic could end up like Amazon, or it could end up like Yahoo.
Where are these open models that are as good as GPT and Claude and run locally?
The amount of actual, hard cash revenue these companies are making is a different ballgame from the dot-com bubble.
We are not at CNBC, and that is the argument you hear there every 15 min from creatures like Cramer but this is about return on capital not revenue.
Cisco was making loads of hard cash revenue during dotcom.