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In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute.

I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and compute, leaving Alphabet to have a monopoly on AI, at least in the west.

This is why I think OpenAI and Anthropic should really be one company, if they join forces and pool together investments and compute they'll stand a chance.

> This is why I think OpenAI and Anthropic should really be one company

I think the more companies there are, the better. Having 3 top labs competing, with 2 more trailing is better for consumers than having a monopoly/duopoly in goog or goog vs. the world. There'll be pressure on innovation, cost, availability and so on.

> I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects.

Many people thought Google+ would stomp all over Facebook, and that GCP would kill Azure and AWS for most of the same reasons.

> My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and compute, leaving Alphabet to have a monopoly on AI, at least in the west.

It's the other way around (but the result would be the same): Alphabet has no need to make a 100x exit for the investors, and so can offer the service at cost + %markup, while Anthropic and OpenAI are VC funded, meaning that they need to show 10x - 100x exit for the investors.

IOW, there is no moat, Alphabet would have market-related pricing while VC-backed corps cannot offer market-related pricing.

I think the ideal, but politically infeasible outcome would be passing regulation to prevent hyperscalars from hosting their own models (or requiring wholesale leasing of infra), akin to other country’s telecom line-sharing regulations. Essentially convert machine intelligence to a regulated-utility industry rather than a competitive enterprise.

Consolidation is inevitable, so let’s lean in and ensure society, not shareholders, reap those benefits.

Fun idea, but they may be better competition coming Competing with Google with different teams, models, and business strategies. Im sure google will also be happy selling the adds they put in their models for 1/3 of the revenue.

The scary thing for google is if the AI companies start moving into ad targeting and open sales portals.

>I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects.

You might as well say the same about GCP vs AWS. At the end of the day, in spite of how much superior engineering prowess it has, Google still treats its customers like it views them as a steaming, fly-covered pile of crap. This reflects just as much in Gemini as in their other products; after their initial competitive Gemini 2.5 Pro release, they just kept dumbing it down and reducing quality of service while charging the the same amount, trying to pull a bait-and-switch, and with their latest Gemini Flash release they're charging customers even more for a worse product. No amount of engineering or hardware can overcome such a customer-hostile corporate culture.

> owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects

How's that talent been working out for them the last few years?

No, this is why anti trust regulation should be created and/or enforced. It’s insane to me that the “free market” simps don’t understand that you cannot have a free market without regulation. If you get rid of these regulations, you end up with corporate socialism, which is the absolute worst form of economy.
I'm just anticipating the next version of “Community-based EBITDA" that sama rolls out in the latest attempt to convince everyone that spending >$1 to earn $1 is a good idea.
"AGI-enabled EBITDA"
Let me guess... wall street bets is going to pump $OPEN stock?
It is increasingly look like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (xAI) are going to burst their own AI bubble by going public. Their businesses aren't ready for that kind of quarter-by-quarter grinding scrutiny. It is going to be bad when their lockup periods end.
> We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company.

Presumably those things were harder as a charity/non-profit.

What a weird tone this is written in.
Elon is not going to be happy about this. He's been vocal about his dislike towards the business model OpenAI chose to run with.
Starting the first three sentences with "We" does not pass the Voigh-Kampff / "I am not a robot" test.
"Hey, don't invest too much in Spacex or Anthropic. We're planning an IPO too."
This is like a slack message
How much did Apple (via Google (via xAI (via SpaceX))) just crush their product?

Seems an awful lot like Apple will commoditize the models that power Siri, and just “sherlocked” a trillion dollar private company.

What was that Warren Buffett's quote about everyone trying to leave the party seconds before midnight in a room where there are no clocks? I think it was at peak of the dot com bubble
[meta, off-topic but relevant]

Maybe the solution to s..tposters is to do what Wikipedia does.

Some articles/topics are "protected" and new/unverified accounts cannot touch them.

I wonder how much of it is photos?
This is the true definition of AGI and will be achieved this year.

The I in AGI has always stood for IPO.

I have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.
Here we go… Let’s see if retail investors are indeed exit liquidity or not
I thought this was about the college football conference for a second.
so who is buying at the open? anthropic, spacex, openai

i think that we are going to see another leg up but this is gonna be it for a while

Was this meant as an internal team post?
When/how are IPO dates released?
Good thing they bought that podcast…
Unless the picture and trajectory changes dramatically I don’t see OpenAI managing to pull off a successful IPO. If they do manage to go public it will likely only be at a fraction of what they’re worth now, with existing investors rushing for the exits to avoid completely losing their shirts.

The revenue trajectory is now anemic, no clear sign of stopping the cash burn anytime soon, and all the liability associated with all things Sam Altman at this point. Frankly it’s a mess.

In Warren Buffet’s Cinderella party scenario it’s 11:59 at the party and someone just found an accurate clock.

Growing worry I have are the dozens of newly minted corporate elites that will continue to wreck havoc on the tech industry mandating their golden paths while America still lacks medicare for all, college for all, and universal childcare.

If you think Sam Altman is bad for the industry, imagine what 200 of him will be like!

I have instructed my financial advisor to keep my exposure to the upcoming wave of AI IPOs as close to zero as possible.
> We recently submitted a confidential S-1. We expect it to leak so we’re just announcing it.

What?

The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom.

Where we land remains to be seen.

"We want to be ready to grift public money at a moment's notice, but there are still opportunities to grift private money right now, so we are holding off."
codex is great
The cheap money for subsidizing tokens has begun to run out. Not all gone, yet, but it's getting harder to pretend the chatbots are cost-effective to run. Soon, they're going to need to tap a larger pool for money: Everyone's retirement accounts.
What a shitty company, and this shitty announcement proves they are going to be shittier after the IPO.
I don’t get what’s the point of non-profits if you can IPO them. How does that make any sense?