Item — HN Reader

I disagree with Steve Yegge's assessment that the curve is close to leveling off. It's not the models, it's the harnesses and the result automation possibilities that are the true unlock. LLMs stabilizing around a current local maximum is actually not much of a big deal. If we just use the models we have today there is so much more unlock available.

We have only just begun our ascent up the hockey stick and the most intense change is yet to come.

The real danger is how big of a gap will exist once the curve does level off. If we are just at the start of the sigmoid curve and starting our ascent, then many jobs will be thrown off by the time we hit the peak and begin to level off.

No politician or corporation is preparing for this sufficiently.

1 comments

> It's not the models, it's the harnesses and the result automation possibilities that are the true unlock. LLMs stabilizing around a current local maximum is actually not much of a big deal. If we just use the models we have today there is so much more unlock available.

This. And we don't even need LLMs. Orchestrated SLMs that are actually good at their topical areas of training (imagine that) are more in-tune with what the enterprise wants.

> The real danger is how big of a gap will exist once the curve does level off.

I think we've seen that is has. Parlor tricks like what Anthropic is pulling with Fable / Mythos is ultimately a cheat. Basically what you describe up top: the harnesses and underlying automation built in - and that's exactly what Anthropic didn't tell people Fable was, yet it is. And here we are. Is Fable amazing without Claude Code under the covers? Probably not much outside Opus 4.8. The models themselves aren't accelerating as fast as they were years ago, but the marketing clankers have kicked in and are pushing out benchmarks and numbers and all the things, but in reality they're fractions of a point improved. And they still get the obvious things wrong, even when you're paying the inflated high prices. I just can't wait until Anthropic tells everyone that API access to a model is "dangerous", because you know damn well that's coming. There's no moat unless they keep digging. And they're digging right now, that's very clear.