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-16.5% at the moment... Is the market reacting to the $20B bond offering news?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/spacex-ki...
so, are these bonds a good buy?
A rapid unscheduled financial disassembly.
If my schadenfreude grows anymore, I might burst into tears.
Still above the actual IPO price of 135.
It's below where it opened trading on the first day which I guess is what the editorialised headline is supposed to mean. Trading opened at about 160 on the 12th and is about 155 now. Such fluctuations don't really mean much.
First trade was exactly $150. The indicated price was falling from around $170 and then when it hit $150 the market opened.
Let's grab some popcorn.
- Price/Sales about 128x (NVIDIA had a peak of a 40x at its peak)
- Bought Twitter per 44 billions. Inflated its valuation to $250 billion just by integrating it into X.AI
- EnterpriseValue/EBITDA about 219x (30x for scaleup business) and negative Price-to-Earnings
- Low free-float trick (minimal public shares available)
Even the market efficiency hypothesis struggles to justify it
Spare a thought for the investors who bought SPCX at $218 on the 16 June
at 10:00AM...They REALLY needed that stock....
That's bad for ETF owners too. Funds will be legally forced to buy a tightly restricted supply that will pump the price even more
If the Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI deals stay afloat, the numbers are much better.
Not convinced it means anything in one way or another.
I remember the same headlines right after Facebook's IPO. The discourse was very much that it was obvious that a website to connect with your friends wouldn't make money.
Facebook was profitable
What's your point? If people were skeptical of Facebook even if it was profitable then it reinforces the grandparent comment's point.
SpaceX is too with the Anthropic/Google deal
For the sake of clarity, it's well above its historic IPO price, but near or slightly below where it began trading that day once it officially opened.
Historic IPO price? It opened at $160 10 days ago, did it not? Currently it is below that price. What historic price are you referring to?
IPO price was $135
SpaceX will swing wildly in future, also exploding/successful Starship flights and enthusiasm for moon landing/Artemis missions.
Which is true, but silly. SpaceX's rocket business is currently a $4B/year business. SpaceX's $2T valuation has nothing to do with launching rockets, a little bit to do with being an ISP and a lot to do with AI hype.
Yes, they claim the TAM for AI is 24 trillion dollars. Do with that what you will.
The $2T valuation definitely depends on Starship working well. Orbital data centers have no chance of being profitable otherwise.
If the price moves down when a Starship test flight doesn't achieve all objectives that's probably a good opportunity to buy. Many people think "rocket go boom, must be bad" but to some extent it's expected during the development phase. They get more useful data about where the limits are when it doesn't work.
Of course there's limits to that, but SpaceX has a lot of cash to absorb failures, unlike in the early days.
The IPO price for SpaceX was _delusional_. The price now is delusional. Especially since it's so dependent on the US government for revenue and he's done everything possible to irritate the party that's about to take over the federal budget.
It was insane to me that a company that had less than thirty-billion in revenue was valued at more than a trillion. I'm not sure how the People in Charge didn't call bullshit.
There are no people in charge.
The way exponential maths works, if a company really can grow at (for example) 10% per annum then it can grow into what looks initially like a very high PE multiple on current earnings surprisingly quickly.
This is why people sometimes use forward P/E but that does have the obvious drawback of the denominator not actually existing yet.
However with SpaceX the valuation is extreme and also can they grow at that rate for years on end? Potentially not
At least people stop shorting SpaceX on fundamentals. Shorting just increases the momentum.
QUOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDUM
AD TERRAM!
YOU MUST CONSTRUCT ADDITIONAL PYLONS!
why would you even invest into this bubble
because i am smarter than the next guy and will know when to get out.
Last words before posting loss porn on r/wsb
Marketing and promotion.
pump and dump scheme, but your 401k bought some.
One thing I learned recently is that Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTI) is float-weighted. That means that SpaceX's percentage in the index is based on the value of the floating shares, not the total market cap. As a result, a fund like VTI, for now, doesn't have that much SpaceX. It will add more as the lockup periods expire and the float increases, but increasing float might also drive down the price.
Looks like the holdings update at the end of each month. Check back in ~8 days and look for SPCX!
https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vti/vangu... (there's a search by ticker under Holdings)
They didn't even start on the dump part yet. Only initial 5% of the shares are trading so far.
Notably, today was the first batch of additions, which really does lend credence to the idea that it's just about people getting out after the forced buying. We'll see what happens in early July when it makes it into the Nasdaq 100.
Do 401k's know about pump-and-dump, but think they can time it to make profit? Or are 401ks "bound" to buy stocks?
It feels like a lot of retail buyers know the emperor is naked, but are still acting on greed, thinking they can "catch the falling knife" and time the market departure to profit from the hype...
I think it was completely obvious from the outset that this was a pump and dump scam. I'm waiting for the insider trading charges to hit.
No insiders have been able to sell yet, and won't for another couple months.
Elon and some major early investors are locked up for a whole year.
US doesn't enforce laws concerning financial crimes anymore. Or laws on milk purity, either.
Palantir -6.98%
Context?