-the US is the only place where you can raise the kinds of money you need to run a lab like this.

-a government that won’t let you sell products to customers abroad will probably object even more to you moving abroad.

Even if you made the move abroad, that government might no longer let you access US data centers.

-This basically affects OpenAI and Anthropic, which make the only LLMs most people consider frontier nowadays. Since most open weights models rely on distillation of frontier models, it may genuinely entrench those companies more.

It may be playing into the hands of open source OAI/Anthropic dependencies start to look more dangerous, but it also makes building better OSS models harder.

The advantages the AI labs rely on might be less durable than a proprietary process in industrial manufacturing, but it’s still meaningful.

I think the bigger reckoning will come from a different angle: tokens will eventually need to cover cost.

That will likely mean multiplying prices compared to today. And companies already complain now!

Model orchestration and smaller models that can run locally or cheaply will become more important in my opinion.

Right now, you can still default to GPT/Claude and it’s kind of fine, but that will have to change.