Tangential, but I'm pretty sad about EU having absolutely nothing in the actual SotA LLM market. Especially given the recent events of US completely restricting the actual SotA models.
Has this been just pure lack of funding and infra?
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Software in general, AI as well, is a rich get richer market. The big American companies can afford to (and very much do) scoop up European talents and upcoming European companies. And if they don't want to buy them, they can undercut them to bankruptcy. We live in a colony economy, with human capital as the raw produce, and it all gets funneled to the USA.
The only way to avoid this is to stop playing the game as it is today, and start using proper industrial policy to build up a competitive industry (like China did). There has been no appetite for that the last decades, but Trump is making it completely clear that the state is back, and Europe is slowly acknowledging it as well.
Europeans should thank Trump for that. Digital sovereignty became a major theme mostly because his hollow head could not comprehend the previous strategy.
I would say it is mostly a money problem rooted in the culture. VC funding is not nearly as common in Europe. Not that many people are willing to risk serious money the way US corporations do, or even ordinary Americans through the stock market. Banks will never lend you money for this.
That itself makes it really easy to poach great engineers. You can earn very good money in Europe, but usually not the best money.
If the EU wanted to pour billions into AI labs, national governments would immediately start fighting over which country should host them. These petty disputes, coming from hundreds of years of Europeans killing each other, are one of the main things holding them back.
I believe that in the end, the strategy will be to watch what worked and what did not work for the Americans, then simply copy it. But Europe was never really cut off from crucial technology before, so I'm curious if that will have any interesting solution.
Mistral is generally winning the fights it chooses to fight and that's what they need to do.
Instead of looking at what EU's economy could contribute towards a SotA model it's more accurate to look at what France's economy could contribute, then compare that to the US or China. The scale isn't there. Instead what I like to see is what they can accomplish with that lower scale, and it's stuff like Leanstral, Voxtral and other niche products.
Mistral has raised $4B+ which is a decent chunk of change, albeit not in the league of OpenAI/Anthropic/xAI.
The hard part is justifying pure LLM development financially. Models are all very similar. OpenAI justified it originally by being a 'charity' dedicated to pure research (not financial). Anthropic justified it by saying OpenAI didn't care enough about safety and splitting from them (not financial). Elon justified it by saying that AI would be woke and untruthful unless he built Grok (not financial). Google did Gemini because, well, they're where it all started and because AI research was one of the core missions Larry & Sergey gave it when they started it (but then sat on it for financial reasons).
Then there's the Chinese models. It's unclear what their motives are tbh. I've never seen a really great explanation, only hypotheses. But as they're giving them away for free or very underpriced, their motivation doesn't seem to be financial either.
But Mistral is a normal company. It doesn't have rich backers giving it money based on narratives about cosmic destiny, so it needs to justify what it's doing with ROI. So that more or less rules out large scale LLM training.
There's also EU regulation to consider. When I looked at this in the past I found lots of odd rules that kill off any chance of having a European tech industry. The UK had one that said you could only crawl the internet for research purposes!
https://knowledgerights21.org/news-story/the-uks-copyright-l...
And without the First Amendment you're at much greater risk of being prosecuted for things your models say. See how Germany has taken Google to court over things its models put in its search result pages.
So the benefit isn't clear and the legal risks are very high.
Someone commented on this page that their main market are long term b2b contracts. If that’s true then what you are saying isn’t a problem.
Right, they pivoted, but originally they were a pure play LLM developer.
> Has this been just pure lack of funding and infra?
For the most part, yes.
France and Germany are the two biggest EU economies. France has well, Mistral, and we here have a government-funded VC entity that is way too proud [1] to be able to offer a whopping… €125 million (<$150 M USD) for helping European researchers achieve new SOTA in sovereign models. And that sum is not even going to a single challenge winner, it'll be split up among multiple recipients. Don't get me wrong, this is a cool first step, or rather, would have been one about three to four years ago.
It's a pity, really.
[1] (in German) https://www.sprind.org/worte/magazin/verkuendung-next-fronti...
One could make the case that being SotA in 2026 is very costly and not that important for being SotA in 2030 if much more efficient models indeed happens.
The EU simply doesn't have a proper common market, especially when it comes to capital. Having more people than the US and a big economy in aggregate doesn't matter much if you can't efficiently pool resources. Could we in Europe have 100 billion fundraises for a new lab? If not, then it's over and you can give up.
I agree with your analysis, at least as long as we shall remain strictly inside the free market methodologies. And having a common capital market would be good no matter what.
But there are other ways to pool resources than the free market. Airbus was not made dynamically in a market, neither was the LHC. 100 billion € is a lot, it's half of the total allocated aid from Europe to Ukraina. Which can be read in two ways, either 'helping Ukraine is already weighing us down, another similar cost is too much for some IT toy ', or 'Europe has the ability to collect massive amount of capital when it needs to, and AI is a existential threat which justifies it'.
How much does supporting multiple languages as first-class citizens (versus adding a translation layer) cost a model?
absolutely nothing id imagine? you think all the chinese are using their models in english?
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