Item — HN Reader

UK official body of actuaries basically says we are on trajectory of "Extreme" rating:

> 3°C or more by 2050. Multiple climate tipping points triggered, tipping cascade.

> over 4 billion deaths

If so, big shifts would already be imminently felt within next 5-10 years.

Remember that there would basically be no place to hide from these direct or knock-on effects.

Not for any self sufficient "prepper with a Mac Studio" nor for any billionaire with their "Galapagos" private island data center come habitat or any other short-sighted fantasy escape scenarios.

https://actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erlna/planetary-solvency.p...

Edit: "on trajectory" to "Extreme" was too strong; it’s the report’s worst case band and not a forecast. What they’re basically saying is that "the chance of this happening is way too high".

1 comments

> there will basically no place to hide from these direct or any knock-on effects

This is nonsense. (And your own source doesn't support the claim that the consequences of global warming will be unmitigable for anyone.)

Many parts of the world will become milder for human occupation as a result of climate change. And nothing realistically forecast is unavoidable with wealth–rich countries will A/C and seawall their ways around the consequences.

The effects would definitely be felt by everyone if the global population were on its way to be halved. Also knock-on effects like mass emigration putting additional pressure on an already difficult political landscape. Potential for many more wars; more unknown unknowns etc.

Edit: the report’s "Extreme" severity band is indeed not a forecast but they’re basically saying "the chance of this happening is way too high".

> effects would definitely be felt by everyone if the global population were on its way to be halved

Many effects would hurt most people. But some would also be profited from. It’s incredible–as in debilitating to one’s credibility-to claim that everyone would suffer in the extreme case.

The rich, and I say this broadly to include the rich countries, will probably be fine. Poorer, yes, but not uniformly. Plenty of plenty of places and people would see booms from the new weather patterns, coasts and social fault lines.

Your perspective is considering only temperature by geography.

Please also consider infectious disease and famine throughout the world.

You can hide from the temperature. You will have a harder time hiding from war and disease.

Most of the food is grown in certain areas that might not be able to support it anymore. New areas opening up won't be able to be cultivated for decades. Most big cities will cease to function as food supply dwindles. But hey, some enclaves on the outskirts of climate impact and society will not notice so its totally fine and probably even good.