Open weight models aren't likely to be open weight in the long-term. China has started considering export controlling and limiting access to model weights [0].
[0] - https://www.ft.com/content/6049a031-9e9b-464c-97bb-414da04d5...
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That contradicts this:
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/chinas-xi-touts-open-source-ai-a...
So who even knows.
They don't need to be open weight in the long term; once there's an open-weight Fable-level model with 1M context it'll be pretty much good enough for all coding tasks, no need for new models.