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Within the neighboring region, China has also been sending extensive signals of "we support you and will engage in full trade with you, and retain full diplomatic relationships, etc, no matter what you're doing to your own people domestically" to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Stuff like offering full accreditation to the Taliban-run embassy in Beijing and issuing visas/support for a whole cadre of Taliban officials.

If China did an about-face on maintaining friendly relations with the IRGC, that would also be a big signal to the Taliban that maybe their "all weather" relationship with China was a bit more precarious than they previously thought it was.

With the recent minor border war between Afghan Taliban and Pakistani forces, closing the major land cargo trade routes of Torkham, Spin Boldak (and flows of cargo) along the AF/PK border, Afghanistan has very recently become much more reliant on import transit trade via Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Much of that for manufactured goods and technology that Afghanistan can't build domestically (just about everything of any technical sophistication) is ultimately manufactured in China and goes through UZ and TJ.

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> China has also been sending extensive signals of "we support you and will engage in full trade with you, and retain full diplomatic relationships, etc, no matter what you're doing to your own people domestically" to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Stuff like offering

China has started disengaging with the Taliban now that Pakistan is fighting a war against them and after the Taliban are sending their leadership to India almost every month [0][1], backing the Taliban's position [2], and the Pakistani Taliban (which has the same leadership as the Afghan Taliban) has continued to attack CPEC [3] and targeting Chinese personnel [4].

> If China did an about-face on maintaining friendly relations with the IRGC, that would also be a big signal to the Taliban that maybe their "all weather" relationship with China was a bit more precarious than they previously thought it was

China snubbed the Taliban by not condemning Pakistan's strikes on Afghanistan [2] and not pressuing Pakistan to allow Afghanistan's ascension in the SCO [5].

And there's a reason the Taliban are sending their wounded for treatment in India and not China [6].

> With the recent minor border war...

The Taliban are treating the war as existential. And they are now diverting Afghan cargo to Indian operated Shahid Beheshti Terminal in Iran [7].

[0] - https://amu.tv/247309/

[1] - https://www.afintl.com/en/202607073529

[2] - https://amu.tv/245784/

[3] - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/world/asia/pakistan-china...

[4] - https://afghandiaspora.org/2026/06/30/beyond-security-why-ch...

[5] - https://amu.tv/244941/

[6] - https://www.afintl.com/en/202606204287

[7] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/afghanistan-urges-india-...

> and the Pakistani Taliban (which has the same leadership as the Afghan Taliban) has continued to attack CPEC [3] and targeting Chinese personnel [4].

Is it a fair assumption that a major factor in this in China's long term and continuing military cooperation with Pakistan? Joint fighter/attack jet development programs for air force, etc. It's my understanding that China has very friendly relations with the generals who actually run the Pakistani state, no matter who might be occupying the PM/president role at any given time.

China's on the fence about transferring newer Chinese tech like the J-35 to Pakistan because the F-16 remains the backbone of the PAF [0] and American military personnel remain deployed in Pakistan to maintain the fleet.

Also, the current dictator in charge of Pakistan leans pro-America after the US allegedly helped overthrow Imran Khan [1][2].

And this is what makes it so difficult for China - opposing the IRGC makes it easier for Pakistan, Cambodia, Laos, and others to justify enhancing engagement with the US at the expense of China while supporting the IRGC means dealing with the extended logistical shock while backing an organization that views both Western and Chinese investors negatively and undermining long-term engagement with the GCC.

[0] - https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/why-china-will-not-sell-5th-...

[1] - https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/pakistan-mediator-united-stat...

[2] - https://ia601601.us.archive.org/11/items/cypher-pakistan-i-0...