As of 2025, 90% of Canadian crude and 100% of natural gas goes to the US. <https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/ma...> Carney has talked a lot about new pipelines, but so did Trudeau and absolutely nothing has actually happened, because BC and Ontario are 100% dead-set against them.
>If they can somehow manufacture things of high value (electronics, pharmaceuticals)
Canada has, to a first degree of approximation, no electronics manufacturing. Its COVID vaccines were 100% manufactured elsewhere.
>Australia and New Zealand manage to support technological states.
New Zealand is seeing a brain drain that makes Canada's to the US look like nothing.
Australia is a better example. But stating that another similar resource-based Anglosphere country has not gone bankrupt without a US-like next-door neighbor is not necessarily the compelling counterexample that you think it is.
>Hell, they can join the EU as their products complement European states.
Read again what I wrote about how trade cannot be so easily substituted.
>And you assume the us won’t fracture.
Sorry to shatter (ahem) your illusions, but Canada is the one with Quebec and Alberta (and <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_alienation> in general). Americans see themselves as Americans first and foremost.