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But how would the actual weights it be made illegal without violating the 1st amendment?
By ignoring the 1st amendment? The US has a tendency of ignoring its constitution whenever it's convenient.
Don't be glib, the 1st amendment is taken VERY seriously.
Im not sure if you’re joking or not.

- the US strictly regulate cryptography https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_of_cryptography_from_th...

- some prime numbers are considered illegal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_number#Illegal_primes

I don’t think banning open weight is that far fetch compared to those

Neither of those worked very well.
Ok, but that’s a different thing altogether. I personally expect a ban, that doesn’t mean it will be very effective, but that does mean it will have a meaningful impact (such as not being able to offer open weight models as a service)