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The article mentions the staffing firm's name incorrectly: it's not Xfino, but Xpheno. When I checked their website, the only "research" was from June 2025, with no sources cited for the numbers shown for the "research." And those jobs are limited to India. [1]

[1] https://www.xpheno.com/researches/june-2025-active-tech-jobs...

This article is about the Indian reverse brain drain, so Indian tech jobs outlook is what matters.

And it's true by and large - most Indians who immigrated to the US after 2010 will never become citizens in their lifetime because of the green card backlog.

Every person who was born in India and is the US on any visa except an O-1 knows their time in the US will eventually end because of the GC backlog. And the other options (eg. Canada, UK, Germany) aren't as entice because of the horrid job market.

This is a poorly researched article with no credible actual statistics. The entire article is based on a staffing company's numbers which have no citations. While what you say may be public opinion in general, sharing this on HN without checking the validity of the sources adds up to the sensationalism of this topic on the internet. This will add up to fear on the topic, not help anything, unless of course the stats are legit.

Also, any legitimate research should mention conflict of interest by the researching organization. In this case, it's a staffing company, so there's reason to believe that there might be conflicts of interest.

It's an irreversible fact of how naturalization works in the US. The only way to naturalize is by getting a green card, holding it for 5 years, and then applying.

But GCs have a country cap, and the current backlog for those born in India is in the decades range.

EVERY Indian, Chinese, Mexican, and Filipino national knows this as those are the 4 nations with country caps today.

Chinese nationals have a similar backlog as Indians hence why the reverse brain drain began in the late 2000s and early 2010s. White-Collar Mexicans tend to use the TN visa to maintain de facto permanent residency. For Pinoys I actually have no idea.

I appreciate your thoughts on green card situation. But my concern is the article. Green card issues is not once mentioned in the article, all it speaks of is H1-B. It paints the picture that people are returning to India because of H1-B problems, presenting numbers from a staffing firm and opinions from unknown experts. This is more like an opinion piece than actual research. I don't know why we are digressing to green cards.
> most Indians who immigrated to the US after 2010 will never become citizens in their lifetime because of the green card backlog.

While a green card makes it easier to get a US citizenship, it is not a requirement for it.

You cannot naturalize in the US without a green card.

Almost all Indian nationals who immigrated to the US since 2010 were born in India and as a result of the country of birth backlog will never get American permanent residency or citizenship in their lifetime.

The only ways to become an American without having a green card is being born in America or being born to an American citizen.

You are right, I was mistaken. Apparently permanent residency is a must now. The only way to bypass the employment based green card quota is to marry an American citizen.