The only way for the US to win is to concede and acquiesce control of the Strait to Iran, but the administration has too much pride and hubris so they’ll keep bullying until stopped.
It’s not a complex geopolitical game, it’s saving face.
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Trump's Iran dilemma: He's stuck in war with no exit in sight - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49200602 - August 2026
I think returning (to some extent) to the status quo is possible but only if Trump’s admin is replaced or at least neutered. Then both Iran and US can make a deal without losing face and expect than US won’t break its word the next day.