"Good enough" LLM functionality (for the use case) will be on-die or on-chip for cars, appliances, etc. This will provide speeds of chatjimmy at a battery-level power consumption.
Probably this will also happen for software engineering. Some usb-powered AI accelerator with Kimi K3 (and in future even better) performance running at 10K+ tokens/sec under 50W of power purchasable for almost no cost. Need a better model? Buy the new hardware. Old hardware is probably still fine for a lot of other use-cases. I expect China to be a big player here, it fits their open-model and hardware-manufacturing strategy.
I would expect that Gemma 4 E2B (approx 5.1 billion parameters) or maybe even Gemma 4 26 billion A4B at some point is running on a chip.
And one can say LLMs are not as smart as a human, but a lot of the reasoning humans do for product and service generation isn't smart at all—it's just a bit of fuzzy input/output plus some reasoning rules. And then if you hook a robot up to the LLM, you can get results in atoms instead of bits.
I'm very excited about the future. I also hope it will stop money from flowing to bureaucrats who are incentived to keep the problems open to keep the money flowing, and instead facilitate sharing directly with the people (for example, no money to the state to solve homelessness—instead, spay instead with intelligence output to build a house and provide food as part of taxes.)
Sentient Switchblade: "Hi Beth! You've gotten taller! Shall we resume stabbing?"If you make chips, you want models to be free.
I expect one day having small lower power demand drive sized devices with proprietary burned-in models that are quite fast running on-device in robotics and such. Commoditizing LLMs via burned and locked hardware seems likely when LLMs have stabilized (when we reach a year between releases again) and the hardware is capable and “disposable” enough. “Buy a robot and upgrade it forever* (5 years) with newer models (sold separately)”, at least until the planned hardware obsolescence that the “interface has changed to support newer hardware, so you’ll need to upgrade (again) to use the latest features”.
The plans basically write themselves.
My food processor could use a self-cleaning feature. It could only be made worse by some system that, IDK, changes the setting based on off-hand comments about "I don't know what his beef is.."
Specific traces for specific inferencing will mean that some generations get deprecated. Look at H265.
Baking models onto silicon would've been the next logical move to get a moat.
Google is already doing this and has an experimental project on top of already having TPUs and cramming their quantized flash onto individual TPUs for inference.
For example, faster internet didn't mean being able to view 100x as many HTML4 web pages. It brought SaaS, streaming media and interactivity.
I'm not good at predicting, but some ideas:
1. All information gets augmented in real time with personalised context.
2. AI interaction seems more like find-as-you-type than a back and forth.
3. AI produces many outputs to pick from. Either the human, AI, or another system can do the deciding.
Even if it's last year's model, speeding up LLM inference could open up all sorts of opportunities.
Modern LLMs are trying to do more with less. Focus on doing the right thing the first time. Even if we squeeze dumb LLMs, the significantly faster speed means quicker iterations. So a bad decision doesn't cost the time and inference costs that it cost before. It theoretically changes the scale of errant token spend.
I compare it to the 1 thousand monkeys on a typewriter. In this case it's 1,000 monkeys with stale training data of everything ever written and the ability to search the web.
This move undercuts NVIDIA directly.
Caveats stacked high, obviously. It's 3.16M parameters (tinystories, and I also have a kevin-speak lemmatised version), the tokens are characters, and the 60k record is 16 streams that each remember exactly one token of context, so it's blisteringly fast at saying nothing. The honest build with full context and KV caching still does ~19k tok/s on one stream though.
I keep messing with the blogpost with the live demo, but I'm planning on flipping it to live in the next day or two
Something I personally haven’t seen much of, in all the discussions of model benchmarks and AI breakthroughs, is a distinction between “peak performance” and “reliable performance”. The “peak performance” of frontier models is very high: they’re solving open math problems, analyzing large codebases, etc. But my subjective impression is that “reliable performance” is mid at best: out of 100 random questions I might think to ask, it’s likely to say something wrong or stupid a handful of times at least.
I think there’s inherent tension between the two: the more a model reaches or outright hallucinates, the more likely it is to come up with tricky, subtle solutions to problems (I think people are somewhat like this too: Terry Tao’s brother is nonverbal, Jim Watson’s son has severe schizophrenia, etc). But then the less likely it is to generate a sensible email reply.
I use models all the time for coding, but I would not let one take over my daily correspondence. If the idea here is to run frontier models at high speed in data centers, that could be useful (the speed would be cool), but I’d be surprised if the cost of that hardware churn is worth it to frontier labs. But if the idea is to turn this into a chip that goes in your phone as some kind of routine, low-power inference thing…taking something too kooky to be relied on and baking it into your phone’s hardware like that doesn’t make sense to me.
Won’t the silicon etched model already be 1 or more versions behind by the time the silicon comes out.
Though if it’s cheap enough, there certainly can be a market for cheaper model inferences.
In Aug 2025 you had
- OpenAI o3
- Opus 4.1
- Gemini 2.5 Pro
- Grok 4
Even if those were almost free to run, you'd be way better off with Deepseek flash 0731 or GPT 5.6 Luna, which already are almost free.
Other than for things where the t/s are critical, it seems like a bad idea to etch a model into silicon.
Guess we can look forward to picking these up ex-enterprise on ebay for under $5k a pop in a decade or two
Economic and financial ripple effects would be huge aside from the obvious:
- reduction in electricity usage
- OpenAI / Anthropic are dead in the water unless they start to license their models to fabs.
- Every single one of those GPUs that all of those massive data centers contain become paperweights.
We really, really need better secondary models that can do things fast and do them cheaply for lots of dumb tasks. Not only because it can be used as sub agents by frontier models, but also because it can be like a universal grease for all kinds of software.
I've got an app I am building and I don't want to tie myself with frontier models because I'll never be able to beat openai/anthropic. I just want a simple, cheap, instantaneous model that can just go through my documentation and tell the user what to do next and how to integrate with whatever ai subscription they have.
Burnt in, it needs a zif socket and easy access in every car, aircraft, a pull out slot in a phone, or it's new era planned obselescence.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/karlfreund/2026/02/19/taalas-la...
100% local and no leaks.
That is a downside to be sure, but from a pure business perspective, "that's not a bug -- it's a feature!"... from a pure business perspective it's the ability to sell and resell, to purchasing and re-purchasing customers, way into the future -- that is, recurring revenue from the perspective of the company being able to make those future recurring sales...
In the above case, that company is AMD...
(Also, on a related note, it would be interesting to see what open source / open hardware work has currently been done to offload LLM weights (and/or anything else that could be offloaded to silicon ASIC's) to FPGA's...)
Enjoying the Ian Cutress / TechTechPotato video on Taalas. Some ok good technical details on the tech, and some good insider baseball, whose who stuff. (What a treasure having tech discussions like this about.) https://youtu.be/3MKRjt59hh4
Would it be realistic for a frontier lab to deploy this or would the turnaround time mean the model is always too out of date?
Assuming the weights and architecture are eventually stable, how much cheaper would this end up being?
1. This chip for an 8B model even if it was done at 5nm would still be twice the size of a conventional CPU die so what are the yields for this going to be like for even a 30B model?
2. They say 2 months but llama 3.1 was released 2024, ~2 years which is normal lead time for silicon, I suspect this would take longer if the architecture is not llama?
3. Can google do the same thing in house with their Gemma 4 series (two year lead time puts Gemma 4 on silicon April 2028) ?
I can see the benefit for hyper scalers but at the rate of model turn over does this type of investment make sense?
Are we a couple years away, a decade away, or something else?
Even if we assume reasoning latency drops to ~0ms (AFAIK this demo doesn't include reasoning at all), these use-cases will still remain relatively slow due to I/O of tool calls.
Even in data center space, I believe several layers can use fixed weights and remaining layers will compensate for the variations. Power savings will be huge so I think there is an incentive to do more of these.
Models, probably first open weight ones like Kimi K3 class, are etched into silicon like this and sold as cartridges almost like old school game cartridges.
You buy a USB-C dongle that the cartridge goes into, or for data centers you have PCI cards that take these in slots.
Cerebras is already public. AFAICT, there are 8 other startups in the space, some of which have mature products: Etched, d-Matrix, SambaNova, Tenstorrent, Positron, FuriosaAI, Rebellions and Fractile.