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by alephnerd·3d ago·view on hn ↗
> overpopulation has been a concern for many decades, yet politicians that ignore the problem, or actually advocate for more population, somehow keep getting elected

Most societies have reached a point where fertility rates have declined to below replacement.

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Most developed societies. When you live by subsistence agriculture, having lots of kids is a benefit as they are free labor. When a culture urbanizes and industrializes, they are less of a benefit.
It's most societies, period. Of the 237 nations and territories recognized by UN, only 42% had a sustainable fertility rate. [1]

It seems reasonable to assume kids having more positive economic power in the past played a significant role, but there's counter-examples abounds in modern times. Nigeria is heavily urbanized yet has one of the highest fertility rates in the world. Or on the other end of the spectrum, Thailand has a very large chunk of people living off farming, yet has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fer...

What's a "sustainable" fertility rate to you? Given that the current human biomass is completely unprecedented in all of history and is only made possible by artificial energy inputs (fossil fuels and ammonia/fertilizer), I posit that the only sustainable fertility rate is well below 2.0
When discussing fertility rates "sustainable" usually means "ratio of births to deaths in order to have a stable population". In developed economies that's around 2.1 children per woman. Anything under that and the population declines without immigration.
Not only does it decline, but it declines exponentially. This is why fertility changes will have a far bigger impact on societies than most people appreciate. If a country has a fertility rate of 1 (and places like South Korea are now well below that even) then that means each successive generation is 50% smaller. And this change is compounding. So after 5 generations, for instance, your generational size will be 97% smaller (1 - 0.5^5).

And all the while this is happening your economy is getting wrecked not only because suddenly you have far fewer people, but because your society turns into a giant retirement home, as fertility also determines the age ratios within a society. You can see this by working backwards. Again taking a fertility rate of 1 as an example, if we have 1 newborn then we have 2 20-40 year olds, 4 40-60 year olds, 8 60-80 year olds, and so on. So you have a shrinking economy paired alongside an even smaller ratio of workers, and much greater social strains on that economy as well.

This is also why immigration isn't anything more than a very short-term bandaid. When you're speaking of population declines near 100% over such small windows of time, you end up needing to basically replace the entire population of a region. Doing this with immigration, let alone as this is increasingly a global crisis, just isn't realistic. And this is completely ignoring the social consequences of such actions.

Developing countries are no different actually.

It's only really sub Saharan Africa still growing.

> Most societies have reached a point where fertility rates have declined to below replacement.

And governments in those countries are importing as many people as they can to paper over their own population decline.

What's the international market price of a person?
This is a dubious use of "society", and it ignores the fact that the world population is growing at an extremely fast rate still.
Populations can grow, even rapidly, in the short run even with collapsed fertility. This is because in part it's a lagging metric, but more importantly (and less intuitively) because fertility also determines the age ratios within a society. Imagine a society has a common fertility rate of 1 then that means each successive generation is half as large as the one prior. So if there's 1 new born, then there's 2 20-40 year olds, 4 40-60 year olds, and so on. High fertility rates result in societies with far more younger than elderly populations, and vice versa for low fertility societies.

In the past most societies had high fertility rates, which means there are relatively few elderly, relative to younger people, today. So the global death rate is relatively low as the the number of people annually exiting the stage is relatively low. But when low fertility generations start to die off, this gets turned upside down. You'll have large numbers of elderly dying off, and they'll make up the majority of the population. But this only happens ~80 years after the birth of the low-fertility generation.

This is why Japan looks so catastrophic today even though their fertility rate is much higher than places like South Korea. They've had a mediocre fertility rate since the 60s which then went into collapse in the 70s. By contrast South Korea had a fertility rate of 6 in the 60s, and didn't fall below replacement until the 80s. So Japan has had a solid decade or two head start. The fact we still aren't at the life expectancy of the first below replacement generation in Japan also means today is still going to be seen as 'the good ole days' for them. And this is where most countries are headed.

This something people don't understand. Fertility rate only affects the current generation. You cannot retroactively increase the fertility rate to fix the problem.

If the current generation has a 1.0 fertility rate, that means the next generation will be half as large. If said generation now doubles it's fertility rate to 2.0 it will only maintain the size of that generation, all the old people will age out and be gone all at once.

Now you might say, fine, let's fix it, 4.0 fertility rate, that will only double the size of the next generation, meaning it will only fix one generation of 1.0 fertility. You have stabilized the population, not increased it.

Even if you do this, you now run into a huge bottleneck: parents need to take care of their old parents and their large family all at once. You fixed the biological problem but you're now running into economic collapse.

The world population will peak sometime between 2060 and 2100, and then start declining. 2060 is like… 34 years away.

https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population

Not close enough to avoid total ecosystem collapse.
That's ok, total ecosystem collapse will also reduce the human population.
I didn’t realize you did a phd thesis on this topic and can say things like that so definitively, with no accompanying links or resources to back your claim up!

You convinced me!