Grab a coffee with Leopold Aschenbrenner, ask how their experience with intuition went. You must be right, on time, and with sufficient capital behind you to win.
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Arguable he had all 3. He was right about the market going up for AI, he was right about the years, and he had double-digit billions behind him.
It's just there's no sufficient capital when you decide to re-leverage to 4x every time you can.
He was too early.