AI is not just one bubble, strategist says – but a 'rolling sequence of bubbles'

This is just a bubble by another name. To use tech as an example, remember that the dot-com bubble was really three crashes: the crash of the dot-com companies in 2000, the telecom crash in 2001, and the media crash in 2002. Of course these were all linked. The dot-com companies were massive revenue and expected revenue sources for telecoms and media companies. But noticeably they didn't all crash at the same time. This is typical.

If you think AI is also a bubble, it will probably be the same. If Anthropic and OpenAI go through hard times or disappear, it will take a while before the market understands the scope of how it will affect cloud companies and how much cloud companies have built out and how much revenue can be replaced by non-AI companies. Same thing for semiconductor manufacturers (although as a classically cyclical businesses the pain will be obvious more immediately). One difference though is that because the revenues of these cooperating industries are more round-trips, perhaps that will cause them all to fall together as revenues can disappear essentially overnight.

Its fun to fit theories to past events, but this strategist knows next to nothing. Call me back when he's working on a frontier model or implementing tools at scale... his opinion is worth less than the cost to serve the "article" he was quoted in.

Show us the numbers that substantiate this framing.

Also, if it is “rolling sequence of bubbles”, isn’t it more just like foam that self-corrects rapidly without major crashes? Put differently, isn’t this the opposite of a “bubble”?