back

by toomuchtodo·13y ago·view on hn ↗
I guess DARPA is pretty ridiculous too, right? What have they ever come up with, what with their tax money grab and all?

In all seriousness, you're not helping. At all. Clearly R&D is doing well, but battery and other component prices are too high, while oil consumption has huge externalities that no one is ever forced to pay for. So yes, we're going to tax oil and pour the money into electrification of transportation. Get over it.

3 comments
"Get over it."

This is helping?

This is how you play into the politics of division. It's also how you make enemies and not get what you want as a result.

Don't play the combative divisiveness game. It's for suckers. It serves the politicians, it doesn't serve you.

Yes, "get over it."

Oil is non-renewable; it's getting much more expensive to find ; and the US (my country) spends a huge portion of its tax revenue financing a military to ensure a constant supply of said oil.

The shift to renewables is already well underway, whether the OP wants it to or not. I'm not being combative. On the contrary, I'm simply stating they should accept the inevitable.

We can manufacture oil.

I expect in 50 years we will still have personal cars, but I'm split on whether they will be running on batteries, or running on some liquid fuel that we manufactured from environmental carbon.

offtopic:

"Don't play the combative divisiveness game. It's for suckers. It serves the politicians, it doesn't serve you."

I wish someone would say this every time people start yelling at each other over political decision.

I want to live in a world where conversations can be had, where we can all sit down as a species and say, "Yes, this is what we want" or "no, we're going to pass on this." Unfortunately, there will always be people you will be unable to win over, unable to change their mind, even if the proper direction is a known. What then? We continue to argue? Forever tied in discussions without any forward progress?

The downsides of petroleum are clear. Its polluting, its limited, and we fight regional (check that, global) conflicts over it. Electricity is cheap, it's price is dropping quickly as more capacity comes online (solar, wind, natural gas where fracking is occurring), and its able to be moved across wide geographic areas extremely quickly. There is no reason oil shouldn't be taxed and those funds driven directly into renewables and electrified mobility.

Now, if you want to argue with me on facts, I am all ears. But until someone can prove we're not running out of oil, prove that we don't need a military to patrol the regions we extract that oil from, and prove that our economy can continue to function with a cartel controlling the literal fuel of the world economies, get the hell out of the way.

I think you meant to reply to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5391963
I'd much rather see us spend 600 billion a year on energy, medicine, and other scientific research than on waging pointless wars to get more oil. Maybe then we wouldn't have to raise everyone's taxes to get something done, and could provide the results at a lower cost point since we don't have to rely on the private sector to invent just to let them have monopolies for 20 years. Just a thought.

(Note: that leaves ~100 billion in the defense budget, which is still more than any other nation on Earth spends except China).

I know DARPA has done some good work in the past - they are still mostly famous for their involvement in the early development of the internet in the late 1960 and early 1970s.

But does anyone have hard facts of how effective they are at applied problem solving? Or do they just get lucky every once in a while and have good PR? In particular have they developed some better way to run R&D programs?

I don't know but my limited interaction with their program managers did not impress me but this is purely anecdotal.

They also bankrolled much of the AI research during that period, which is still paying dividends today (because the state of the art hasn't advanced much in that field since DARPA pulled out). Also, tremendous improvements in robotics via funding UAV projects, etc.

What DARPA has is a lot of money without a lot of oversight. Don't underestimate the power of that model. If you look at the organizations that have been extremely effective at innovation, it's organizations where research isn't subject to market pressures. Bell Labs was bankrolled by AT&T's telephone monopoly. Xerox PARC was bankrolled by Xerox's extremely lucrative copier business. Intel, IBM, Google, etc. Innovation is associated with companies that have such tremendous market power that they can be benevolently forward-looking, instead of having to pinch every penny to survive in the dog fight that is a competitive market place.

Tim Wu's book "The Master Switch" gives great insight into this aspect of the AT&T monopoly.

Both the required resources and lots of freedom does seem like a good recipe for innovation. Your historical examples make sense and I can think of many more. However when it comes to government sponsored research I need a little more convincing. Certainly there are good anecdotes and at $3B a year DARPA way be great relative value compared to DOE or NIH.

Thanks for pointing me to Tim Wu - very interesting analysis.