A few months ago I thought about using Threema and the like, but realized nobody's gonna switch with me. So I stayed. Didn't even try to convince anyone.

The day after FB bought WA my non-tech, not-concerned-about-NSA friends started to switch to Threema. On their own. Because Facebook.

Heck, they were even discussing all that on Facebook, as far as I know... that's irony.

So now most people I regularly chat with are on Threema.

And while I don't trust them (especially their competence -- although using NaCL is a good start) nearly as much as I trust Moxie, this issue is closed now. Nobody is going to move again without a very good reason.

The two people I regularly chat with still on WA can't use Threema, because they are still on Android 2.3.

But Threema really needs multi-device IDs. And the ability to change a group's composition. Other than that it's cool. You feel right at home, the emoticons look the same (from the same lib, I guess). And this whole "scan the other guy's public key" is not just a good idea, it's even close to gamification ("only two more people until everyone's green!").

And that's why I don't believe in some meaningful market share for Whispersystems. They are virtually unknown in non-tech circles. They still don't have an iOS app. Yes, I know, there were more important things up to now.

Still, the window of opportunity is closing. In three weeks no "normal" person is going to switch messaging service anymore. Everyone either stays at WhatsApp, or has already agreed with their whole circle of friends on another service.