Item — HN Reader

A bit off topic, but I find it odd how the 16-seed teams are calculated at between 1-4%, even though no 16-seed team has made it past the first round in the entirety of the 64-team tournament (1985: 29 years x 4 teams = 0 for 116).

Not sure how any of these have more than a <1% chance, let alone 4%.

1 comments

The usual method for calculating these percentages is to calculate a power rating for each team, then to use the log5 formula[1] to arrive at the percentage chance of a team winning.

So, the 1-4% chance of a 16 winning is the result of applying the log5 algorithm to their power ratings.

Also remember that there's only 80 16-vs-1 games in 20 years, and only expanded to 64 teams in 1985, so it's totally possible that there is a 1-4% chance for a 16 to beat a 1 and it just hasn't happened yet.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log5