The window is pretty accurate. I've had shipments take a week, and others take 1+ months to the exact same address. It is pretty much random and I just assume it's going to take longer than a month.
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I always imagine there's a plane that leaves at regular intervals, e.g. twice a month. If you order right before the plane leaves you'll get the order sooner, otherwise your order just sits in some depot until the next plane arrives weeks later.