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by jeffreyrogers·11y ago·view on hn ↗
Survivorship bias. What about all the other companies that were the size of Berkshire Hathaway in the 60s, Microsoft in the 80s, Apple in the 90s, etc. that didn't develop into massive successes?

It's also worth noting that Berkshire Hathaway the textile company no longer exists. The mill was shut down long ago and it's essentially the same company in name only. In fact it's hardly what you would consider a business in the typical sense of the word. BH has something like 30 employees (at Berkshire Hathaway itself, the rest are all employed by companies Berkshire owns, which it handles in a very hands off way).

So citing these companies as evidence that criticism of Facebook is unfounded is of dubious validity.

1 comments
>Survivorship bias.

I'm aware of that which is why I already listed counterexamples such as Myspace, Kodak that didn't make a successful transition to a new revenue growth.

>So citing these companies as evidence that criticism of Facebook is unfounded is of dubious validity.

Personally I despise Facebook and enjoy reading any criticisms about it. My point regarding this particular article was that the journalist (like every other journalist that's not "in the know") has to base his prediction on what Facebook is doing now. They don't volunteer their blind spot, therefore we as readers have to be aware of it.

Good points. I think I'm in agreement with you.