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Don't know about that. You already had Clay and Calhoun as leaders of the House, and a big demographic shift towards the west. And if you want a counter-factual, think about the news from Ghent getting there a little faster, since the battle was fought after peace had been signed.

"he might have festered in the backcountry, pursuing a career out of Cormac McCarthy’s Blood Meridian, clearing the landscape of Native Americans."

Probably he did that more efficiently from the White House.

I have read more than once that the death of Clay was largely responsible for the end of the Whig equilibrium, or if you prefer, the death of the Whigs altogether. With the Republicans; Lincoln and ...

The strangest thing about Calhoun is that he is still considered a significant theorist. He is so very alien to how we might apprehend such a man today.