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by Tomte·11y ago·view on hn ↗
Cannot be long until he would have had a better deal by going to the police, confessing everything (even if he didn't do it) and served his time.

Sitting in some embassy for years, without any possibility of having this time count towards a possible sentence.

6 comments
Julian is not an idiot. He knows the whole Swedish prosecution is nothing other than a front to get him into Sweden so he can be handed over to the USA. Look at what happened to Chelsea - does anyone think Julian will face anything less?

Edit. I think that if Julian does now come to Sweden then he won't be extradited to the USA, but this is only because he has dragged it out to the point that nobody powerful in the USA cares too much anymore. My guess is he knows this too and will walk out any time now.

I'm so fucking sick of seeing people spout this, like it's something that would 100% happen.

Yes, Swedens' intelligence community collaborates with their US counterpart.

Sweden has also in the past extradited suspected terrorists. But there's a huge caveat there; they did so in /secret/ — and most importantly — the people involved were not Swedish citizens.

Understand that if Julian were to come to Sweden, and get extradited to the US it would be a HUGE deal.

The protests would be so massive it's not even funny.

The only reason why the current situation hasn't been a bigger thing in Sweden is that it clashes with the semi-radical feministic narrative driven by the media.

Sure it might be a big deal in Sweden, but would this stop it happening?

Unfortunately for Julian he is not a Swedish citizen.

Since Julian has yet to be charged with anything and the Swedish authorities apparently just want to talk to him why can't they get on a Ryan Air flight and come and talk to him in London? Provide a rational answer for this question and I will believe that Julian is not looking a one way trip to the USA.

Personally I think it's for the same reason Peter Sunde was treated like shit in prison, and all his applications to be moved to a prison with appropriate security (i.e. not be around murderers and rapists) was all thrown in the bin.

Purely political. To make a statement.

I can of course not prove this; nor have anyone else been able to as far as I know.

But, that said, I think it's a non sequitur that the current situation, which at least in my mind can only be understood by either absolute incompetence from the prosecution or being under political pressure, would also lead to extradition.

I would absolutely go so far as to say that extraditing him from Sweden would severely impact the relationship between the US and Sweden.

The Swedish authorities don't "just want to talk to him", they want to do the equivalent of interviewing him under caution with a view to probably making an arrest afterwards. They have now eventually indicated they'll visit the Ecuadorean embassy in lieu of other alternatives, but it's fairly rational for a judicial system to try to avoid setting the precedent that fugitives get to dictate how and when they can be questioned, especially when said fugitive also has an expensive legal team trying to get the case thrown out on every conceivable technicality going.

If police ever indicate that you're wanted on suspicion of a crime, try telling them you'll agree to help them with their enquiries so long as they agree that you set up the interview environment and they can't take you into custody afterwards. I guarantee they won't accede to your request, even if you've never leaked a diplomatic cable in your life.

Now provide us with a rational answer as to why those same Swedish authorities let him walk around freely and even leave the country after tipping him off about the allegations if their primary motivation was a one-way ticket to the USA?

It would only set a precedent for fugitives if it is deprived of any context associated with this case.

So in order to dictate "how and when" one can be questioned by the police, as a fugitive you first have to get political asylum in a other nations embassy, sit there for 3 years, and then have the statue of limitation reaching into the last 3 months, and the total cost of the police operation should be around $10 millions.

The risk that this "precedent" should impact even a single fugitive interview in the next 100 years is likely to be small, or actually very small.

> Now provide us with a rational answer as to why those same Swedish authorities let him walk around freely and even leave the country after tipping him off about the allegations if their primary motivation was a one-way ticket to the USA?

Regardless whether or not the motivation is a one-way ticket to the USA, the answer to why they let him walk around freely and leave the country is simple:

It was not the same people.

The current prosecutor intervened in highly unusual manner after the previous prosecutor had indicated there clearly was no crime.

Whether or not that is because of US involvement or, say, her own personal political point-scoring is another matter, but to present it as if it was the "same people" driving the decision to free him initially and the decision to pursue him afterwards is misleading at best.

>I'm so fucking sick of seeing people spout this, like it's something that would 100% happen.

People like GCHQ employees:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/may/20/julian-assange-...

What do you know that they don't?

There was nothing in that article providing any substantial evidence that Sweden would extradite him.

The GCHQ employees were speculating. As am I, of course.

The difference is they work for involved intelligence agencies, and you're a pseudo-anonymous punter on an internet board.

Their speculation is relevant, yours is not.

It was a big deal when the illegal kidnapping and black bagging of political asylum seekers (your "extradition of suspected terrorists") was first revealed in Sweden, but that didn't stop the CIA from continuing to operate extradition flights through Swedish airports for years.
The biggest cognitive dissonance of all is the fact that the UK is orders of magnitude better friends with the US than Sweden. They're not even a NATO member. For the purposes of avoiding extradition to the US, few places would be better than Sweden.
The UK might be a better "friend" than Sweden, but they have this pesky problem of an independent judiciary.

Why does nobody stop and think why has Julian self-incarcerated for longer than he would have faced if he was actually convicted of the crimes he has been accused of?

What are you saying? Sweden doesn't have an independent judiciary?
Assuming there's nothing fishy going on, he would almost certainly have been a free man today had he gone to Sweden and gotten convicted - typical prison sentences for much more serious rape charges are usually shorter than this.

That to me indicates that at the very least his reluctance to go to Sweden is not mainly about the risk of being convicted, but that he sincerely believes in the concerns about extradition (legal or otherwise) to the US. Whether or not those concerns are justified is a separate matter.

Personally I think most of the odd things about this case can be explained by political ambitions on behalf of the prosecutor rather than US involvement - she's known to have long wanted to tighten up Swedish rape legislation even further and could very well have been looking for a case that would be high profile to try to push the envelope without having realised how Assange's fear of the US would make him react. (This doesn't imply anything about whether he's guilty or not)

He is probably balancing it against getting extradited to the U.S. and what could happen there.
Easier to extradite him directly from the UK.
I imagine there are advanages to not being a convicted sex offender.
A high-profile one at that, given that his face was already all over the general news services.
The "funny" thing given the context of this case is that one the things it would likely prevent him from doing - or at least make far harder - would be to voluntarily visit the US.
It's not about this BS fake accusation that he stays in the embassy.

It's about who want him for the Wikileaks stuff -- which is what this case is all about too, and why it can go bad.

How do you now it is BS?
Given the amount of pressure Wikileaks received and the open death threads from several US congressmen towards Assange, it's not a far-fetched assumptions.

The case was closed and re-opened if I'm not mistaken especially because it was Assange. I'm also quite sure Ecuador wouldn't wanna shelter a rapist.

So given the dynamics at play, it's safe to assume that there's more than a rape charge at stake.

Ecuador sheltering Assange is more about Ecuador having a stronger bargaining chip with the US in future deals than anything else. Ecuador isn't some bastion of liberty. Far from it, actually. They're doing it to make a statement to the US and internally to themselves. I'd be willing to guess that Ecuador would turn Assange over to the US in a hot minute if the getting was good for them. I think the reality of this situation is that the US doesn't really want Assange all that much. He's a non-player wrt Wikileaks any more and people are already forgetting who he is.
>Ecuador sheltering Assange is more about Ecuador having a stronger bargaining chip with the US in future deals than anything else.

Only if it plans on handing him over. So, no. If anything it's a wonderful gesture from Ecuador that puts the country in WORSE bargaining position with the US.

>Ecuador isn't some bastion of liberty

It never helped establish dictatorships in other countries, so it has that going for it.

So just wild speculation then?
No, wild knowledge of precedents in European political history.
Reading about the issue and experience and historical knowledge of European politics, US interventions and the like. It's the same kind of shit that has been played time and again, (especially in the sixties and seventies).

I, like I. F. Stone, also don't start from a middle-class-apolitical assumption that the police are always good guys and governments don't lie and frame people, especially when it comes to activists.

Could I be wrong? Sure, but I don't think so.

The flip side is that some of us don't start from the hero-worshipping-conspiracy-theorist approach that public figures with right on political stances never have a dark side, and are familiar enough with the concept of Ockham's razor to understand that governments that want to lie and frame people tend not to do so in the most vague and convoluted manner possible[1]. I'd say that Assange - innocent or otherwise - is considerably more likely to have had a dispute over sexual relations with two former followers than be the victim of the world's most unnecessarily complex fit-up job.

[1]the only possible upside from a conspirator's point of view of having the allegation be so borderline the Swedish authorities showed reluctance to move forward with prosecution is that it seems to have provoked some of Assange's more outspoken supporters into endorsing embarrassingly misogynist sentiments.

It seems clear to me that he almost certainly acted like a total asshole in this case, whether or not he's guilty of a crime.

But that does not mean that I can't at the same time think the prosecution is acting in bizarre manners in this case and that something does not add up, though I don't think it's necessarily down to US involvement.

My guess is that yes, there was a dispute, or at least the women had regrets, and that Ny saw an opportunity to further her own political agenda and grabbed it. No prior conspiracy required - just two badly treated women coupled with a prosecutor who saw an opportunity to score some political points.

At the same time I think Assange genuinely fears that there is US involvement, and that this fear has in part been fuelled by the way Ny has acted in this case.

Of course this is total speculation.

And of course, the lack of a conspiracy does not rule out that US authorities might take advantage if they get the opportunity, but in the meantime having Assange holed up in his embassy would seem like it'd also likely suit them just fine. They know where he is, and his reputation has taken a serious hit.

>and are familiar enough with the concept of Ockham's razor to understand that governments that want to lie and frame people tend not to do so in the most vague and convoluted manner possible

You'd be surprised. In Europe, Africa, Asia, and Latin America (that I know of) there are tons of examples (that were later exposed in court and press) of governments doing it (framing people or lying) in exactly a vague and convoluted manner, and with extreme crudeness and arrogance.

Sweden gave a lot of US soldiers that refused to go to war asylum during the Vietnam war. So much for parallels in between now and the sixties/seventies...
I did not see him drawing a parallel specifically to Sweden in the 60's and 70's, but rather to interventions in Europe in general during that period.

In the sixties/seventies Sweden had a far more radical/left wing government most of the period than it has ever had since. First under Tage Erlander (social democrat; "founder" of large parts of the Swedish welfare system) and his successor, Olof Palme, which was even more left wing.

Olof Palme's harsh criticism of the Vietnam war was indeed a watershed moment in making criticism of the US involvement in Vietnam politically acceptable in Europe and in particular in the Scandinavian countries.

But Sweden has never been as left wing again as it was up until Palme was assassinated.

No prof then?
No one truly knows, but one can guess.

One of the accusers is Anna Ardin... read up on her.

She's a Jihadi-apologising nut job and an left-wing extremist from "Tro och Solidaritet" which does propaganda for Muslim Brotherhood.

Her close friends from MMRK (Swedish CAGE) have been downplaying ISIS rape on children as "American propaganda" until founder Fathima Doubakhil deleted her tweets when Mehmet Kaplan "ISIS are freedom-fighters" got elected in the last election.

Yeah I am aware of the concept "Victim Blaming" but Wikileaks has been tough on Muslim Brotherhood which gives Ardin an angle.

She's a scumbag, regardless of Assanges alleged crime.

Have no idea about Anna Ardin's political motives. And if you think there isn't a ton of anti-enemy and enemy building shameless propaganda thrown to and via the press during any conflict, you're deluded.

However, for what I remember, the rape accusations are ridiculous (though sound for the Swedish law). The alleged rape victim voluntarily hosted Assange in her house and her bed for days after the the alleged rape had happened. The Swedish law appears to be calling rape what in sane countries is just called regret and second thought.

While I tend to question the accusations (though I think it's pretty clear Assange acted like a total asshole whether or not he went over a legal line), it is not unusual for a rape victim to continue to associate with a rapist after being raped. Most rapes are conducted by persons the victim knows, and often the victim may feel like they have no other choice than to put on a brave face and try to move past it. You can't discount the possibility of a rape from that alone.

Also keep in mind that a UK judge too agreed that assuming that the allegations are as described by the Swedish prosecutor, and that these allegations are true it would be a crime in the UK too.

So what the prosecutors allege certainly goes beyond regret and second thought. Whether or not the prosecutors can substantiate those allegations in any way, is another matter.

First, it is two alleged rape victims.

Second, you can have consensual sex one time and then rape the second.

I know who she is. Yes, she is the typical Marxist apologist, I have no ideological sympathies for here cause. And her lawyer is just a dunk left wing opportunistic hack.

However Assange is not the innocent person that some people want him to be either.

I think the main problem is Sweden would extraditing him to the US
Sweden cannot extradite him to the US without the UK's consent. So-called "specialty" rules generally prohibit the further extradition of a person to another country without the extraditing country's consent.

From the ruling of Judge Howard Riddle in Assange v. Swedish Prosecution Authority:

> If Mr Assange is surrendered to Sweden and a request is made to Sweden for his extradition to the United States of America, then article 28 of the framework decision applies. In such an event the consent of the Secretary of State in this country will be required, in accordance with section 58 of the Extradition Act 2003, before Sweden can order Mr Assange’s extradition to a third State. The Secretary of State is required to give notice to Mr Assange unless it is impracticable to do so. Mr Assange would have the protection of the courts in Sweden and, as the Secretary of State’s decision can be reviewed, he would have the protection of the English courts also.

> Sweden cannot extradite him to the US without the UK's consent.

That's not really true. Sweden _isn't supposed to_ extradite him without the UK's consent. But is the UK going to go to war over it? If not, then really Sweden can do whatever it pleases.

"The most important point is that as long as it is externally marked to show its status, the "bag" has diplomatic immunity from search or seizure,[2] as codified in article 27 of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomatic_bag

Now reconcile that information with this new seemingly contradictory information:

"Action required – Assange to be arrested under all circumstances," reads a handwritten briefing note photographed in the hands of one of the officers surrounding the Ecuadorian embassy. The note says Assange is to be arrested if he leaves the embassy in the company of another diplomat or if the Ecuadorians try and smuggle him out in the diplomatic bag."

And even better, they contradict themselves on this policy from the get-go:

"When it comes to its own diplomatic materials, however, the British government takes a harder line. It issued a strong protest when the sanctity of its own diplomatic bag was violated by Zimbabwean authorities in 2000."

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/08/24/police_plan_for_assa...

People violate the Vienne Convention on Diplomatic Relations regularly it seems when it suits their purposes. The idea that Sweden is somehow prevented from doing something inside her own borders because of some toothless international "law" (what is the punishment for failing to abide by the agreement?) is laughable at best and incredibly disingenuous at worst.

It's a little difficult to reconcile the idea of fanatical Swedes doing everything within their power to get Assange into the US with the back-and-forth over whether to prosecute him and their failure to prevent him leaving the country after they'd decided to reopen the case.
maybe there should be a guarantee of military action in case he is extradited (i.e getting the SAS to retrieve him.)
Why do you think that's more likely than the UK extraditing him to the US?
Sweden has a documented history of sending political prisoners to other countries. The UK has at least some records of standing on principle - for example, they made a big stink about UK citizens sitting in Guantanamo Bay and the inhumane conditions they were in.
"Sweden has a documented history of sending political prisoners to other countries."

Political prisoners? No, that's absolute bullshit.

Stop parroting other people without checking your facts.

The UK has extradited multiple people to the US. Your narrative is incorrect.

The UK has laws that make it very easy to extradite people to the US.
What would be the Swedish law that would be used for extradition? (and indeed what would the US law be that Assange would be charged under - and why has that not happened yet?)

And what documented history?