back

by paulpauper·11y ago·view on hn ↗
I think this is similar to the scalar theory of the stock market, which uses scale invariant geometric objects to represent stock market emery levels

http://greyenlightenment.com/sornette-vs-taleb-debate/

Sornette’s 2013 TED video, in which he predicts an imminent stock market crash due to some ‘power law’, is also wrong because two years later the stock market has continued to rally.

You write on your blog:

These kinds of crashes are not caused by external events or bad players–they are endemic to all markets and result from the cooperative actions of all participants.

Easier said than done. I don't think the log periodic theory is a holy grail to making money in the market. There are too many instances here it has failed, but you cherry-picked a single example with bitcoin where it could have worked.

1 comments
It is easier to apply the Sornette theory to antibubbles.

Bitcoin seemed like a great example.

I gotta go back and see how well the predictions actually worked.