Claiming we're not going to be able to simulate the human brain this century is a little bold. That is 85 years away. Eight five years is a long time in technology. Compare for example where we are now with where we were 85 years ago. In 1930 electronic computers did not exist, there was no sharing of information and research via the internet, the global population was around one third of what it is today so there were fewer people to work on technology research, and so on.

And forecasts about what won't happen which turn out wrong (false negatives if you like) don't tend to be viewed in the same way as forecasts about what will happen which turn out wrong (false positives). Compare how we view "there is a world market for maybe five computers" and "640Kb ought to be enough for anybody" (we tend to laugh) with all the false predictions about flying cars and so on for example (we tend to be more rueful). I was just thinking this morning about Clifford Stoll's 1995 book Silicon Snake Oil about the over-hyping of the internet, and wondering why someone would commit to a negative position in such a way.