moultano

Challenge trials. https://www.1daysooner.org/ If it were considered ethical to do them, we could have known in a few weeks. "Medical ethics" claims another million lives.…

Viruses destroy your cells. Their "purpose" is to do damage to your body. Vaccines don't. If they damage your body it's by accident.

The intent isn't to present them as noble savages at all, but as real people with their own complicated motivations. The author is a white American and knows that he doesn't have to put any …

Its purpose is to show the world from Tisquantum's perspective, not positive and negative. You can find an abundance of writing about Plymouth colony from other perspectives. That doesn't m…

These are some of the most fascinating books I've ever read. I really think anyone who lives in the new world should read them. Our default understanding of the land in which we live is so far of…

But he provides no evidence that this is the case. The 2016 election was extremely volatile due to what actually happened during it, not the modelling. There were several bombshell press events all th…

It was not. You are mistaken about the history.

This isn't true. He had both a "nowcast" (if the election were held today) and a prediction of the final result. The only change in that regard between 2016 and now was to stop publishi…

There are lots of positive feedbacks, but they are very difficult to predict the timing and magnitude of with any degree of certainty. Some examples include: - increased fires increasing CO2 - melting…

That happened. It is no longer plausible for us to hold temperatures to 1.5C, which means that we will lose the polar ice cap, and greenland will slowly melt. The weather in the Northern hemisphere wi…

Do you see any evidence that the consistent under-shooting of IPCC consensus predictions has built trust? It is not possible to have an accurate mean prediction, and also to have no predictions above …

The fact that humans interbred with them likely means we would just think of them as another kind of slightly different looking people.

What hurts public trust in climate science is primarily a massive and well funded propaganda campaign that's been going on for 50 years. Some scientists are going to sometimes be wrong about thin…

The context of that prediction were the extreme records set by sea ice in 2012, when it did almost disappear. That made some scientists think that we were seeing a nonlinear phase shift and that it wo…

I don't understand the expectation that every prediction from a climate scientist should be able to hit inherently stochastic dates precisely. On the scale of geologic time and the level of inher…

Here's the response from the Intercept. https://static.theintercept.com/amp/glenn-greenwald-resigns-... > The narrative Glenn presents about his departure is teeming with…

> it's a language model designed to continue a sequence of words. If a language model were able to do this task perfectly, it would be indistinguishable from intelligence, because continuing a…

> Some people have completely unrealistic expectations about what large-scale language models such as GPT-3 can do. Just want to point out that he's saying the people on the upper end of the e…

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricit... "The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper …

The vaccine may itself not be perfectly protective, and the herd immunity threshold only works if the people vaccinated are random. Otherwise any unvaccinated population can have an outbreak.

Even if they never eradicate them entirely, destroying their hives whenever they're found can keep them in check.

The log function has a vertical asymptote as x approaches 0.

Yes, that's the right likelihood function. To get probabilities distributions out of the products in the post, all you have to do is normalize them. That would be equivalent to applying bayes rul…

Yes! Also called the surprisal.